AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb533c3d7a9b4b0d4bea34f0037a9955d6b9a2a9f56329bd543fe7f72245e96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 839.19$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.99 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 34c | 612.07$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 74c | 385.64$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…920bbacked No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 20c | 289.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…7ce7backed Yes | 75c | 260.03$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 56c | 254.41$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 53c | 210.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 26c | 208.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 38c | 153.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 68c | 149.61$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 140.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 25c | 139.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 115.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 24c | 105.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7b…f268backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 76.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 38c | 75.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…4f64backed No | 24c | 71.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…4cfbbacked No | 25c | 68.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…4305backed No | 25c | 66.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…fa71backed No | 25c | 63.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…a691backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…8c7bbacked Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…a723backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked No | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 38c | 41.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…865bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed No | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x631d…1731backed Yes | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 64c | 37.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7f…1c1bbacked Yes | 76c | 36.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…2202backed Yes | 76c | 36.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x075c…f73dbacked Yes | 76c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 39c | 32.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…7331backed Yes | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…df5bbacked Yes | 76c | 27.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…e0cbbacked Yes | 56c | 26.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked Yes | 59c | 25.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…930dbacked No | 47c | 23.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…0df3backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…4805backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%?this page
- Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be above 76%?No won
- Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be below 74%?No won
- Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 74% and 75%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.