Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team AION vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbd35d86c1fb17092b8c5c5a400b744299ae0d9e0c93791cd65ce0cf58d3841b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PuckChampof Team AION, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked PuckChamp | 47c | 5,645$2,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,009.25 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Team AION | 59c | 3,075$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.3 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…ff0fbacked Team AION | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…d67dbacked PuckChamp | 42c | 2,945$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.7 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Team AION | 1c | 2,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp | 36c | 1,801$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Team AION | 59c | 1,542$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.31 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team AION | 62c | 1,417$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.22 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6373…a0b7backed PuckChamp | 45c | 1,232$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.64 | 148 | 25%37 W · 111 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Team AION | 68c | 1,194$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.33 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Team AION | 75c | 812.11$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.77 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Team AION | 75c | 741.33$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.46 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team AION | 32c | 633.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed PuckChamp | 35c | 576.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.95 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Team AION | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed PuckChamp | 33c | 538.53$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.45 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team AION | 56c | 507.65$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.09 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Team AION | 65c | 503.04$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.98 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team AION | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.04 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team AION | 44c | 475.85$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.76 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Team AION | 56c | 380$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked PuckChamp | 31c | 320$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked PuckChamp | 30c | 297.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.81 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed PuckChamp | 28c | 280.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.57 | 208 | 20.7%43 W · 165 L | -18.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed PuckChamp | 25c | 256.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.46 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team AION | 63c | 255.78$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.86 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team AION | 53c | 243.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb238…4961backed Team AION | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed PuckChamp | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team AION | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked PuckChamp | 36c | 174.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed PuckChamp | 22c | 135$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed PuckChamp | 34c | 121.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Team AION | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team AION | 67c | 118.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed PuckChamp | 43c | 116.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Team AION | 29c | 108.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Team AION | 45c | 105.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…de14backed Team AION | 76c | 104.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team AION | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Team AION | 64c | 86.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…2b19backed PuckChamp | 52c | 83.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +11.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…9eaebacked Team AION | 71c | 77.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Team AION | 69c | 77.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Team AION | 41c | 77.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team AION | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Team AION | 40c | 72.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked PuckChamp | 56c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Team AION | 71c | 69.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…b3debacked PuckChamp | 20c | 66.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Team AION | 35c | 64.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed PuckChamp | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked PuckChamp | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 473 | 58.6%277 W · 196 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked PuckChamp | 33c | 54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed PuckChamp | 44c | 53.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Team AION | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…6c35backed PuckChamp | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked PuckChamp | 39c | 49.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…9eb8backed Team AION | 72c | 45.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…706cbacked PuckChamp | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked PuckChamp | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Team AION | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Team AION | 30c | 34.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed PuckChamp | 35c | 32.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…7cbcbacked PuckChamp | 56c | 32.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Team AION | 67c | 30.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed Team AION | 52c | 27.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Team AION | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…9657backed Team AION | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Team AION | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Team AION | 58c | 23.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…c134backed Team AION | 71c | 21.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team AION vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team AION vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group APuckChamp won
- Dota 2: Team AION vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerTeam AION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.