Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd1a0f5469fa051e9f5f605e8964c490e48b5b4c60a6680274549085019bb9a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 813.82$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 771.9$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 736.78$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 719.27$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 3c | 611.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 63c | 578.03$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.45 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 26c | 392.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 76c | 336.14$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 322.77$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 39c | 291.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 69c | 290.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 63c | 266.16$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.68 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 226.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…185cbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 30c | 190$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 166.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 35c | 146.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 37c | 143$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 133.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 125.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 23c | 114.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 36c | 112.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 35c | 83.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 25c | 83.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 28c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 31c | 80.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 78c | 78.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 70.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed Yes | 65c | 68.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 28c | 62.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 61.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 36c | 59.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 79c | 59.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 26c | 57.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 37c | 53.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 56c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 46.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 76c | 42.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 41.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 51c | 39.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 78c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 64c | 33.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed Yes | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 78c | 31.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 80c | 29.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 72c | 28.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 26.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 24.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Yes | 64c | 23.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…2a37backed Yes | 75c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 80c | 16.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 76c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.