TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FOKUSof FOKUS, BC.Game Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$253,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$299,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,376 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd20f…2f35backed BC.Game Esports39c17,499$6,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,752.128750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BC.Game Esports48c13,712$6,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,549.9976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FOKUS68c10,006$6,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,189.473,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c5…0b0abacked BC.Game Esports2c9,788$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.953046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed FOKUS61c7,522$4,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,97112571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed BC.Game Esports48c7,124$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.594136.6%15 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed FOKUS52c6,606$3,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,187.1237157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked BC.Game Esports22c5,253$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14430726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed FOKUS52c4,683$2,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.7446149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FOKUS71c4,435$3,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.056,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BC.Game Esports19c4,301$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.422,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FOKUS54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked FOKUS67c3,979$2,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.581,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed FOKUS58c3,500$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.553746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed FOKUS52c3,158$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.7720838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FOKUS70c3,132$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.052,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed FOKUS56c2,988$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.4112353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BC.Game Esports49c2,638$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.664552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed BC.Game Esports46c2,531$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.288947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed BC.Game Esports26c2,529$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.1517538.3%67 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed BC.Game Esports27c2,503$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.2311643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed BC.Game Esports38c2,484$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.0212752%66 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x008b…c1cfbacked FOKUS62c2,442$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.416355.6%35 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked FOKUS78c2,435$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.058951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked BC.Game Esports49c2,360$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.231353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked FOKUS53c2,164$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.9127740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed BC.Game Esports18c2,093$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.8755738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed BC.Game Esports46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.951,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e3c…d370backed BC.Game Esports55c1,976$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.422347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed FOKUS51c1,960$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.2715264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BC.Game Esports17c1,888$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.7987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed FOKUS52c1,868$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.4937445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x555c…319ebacked BC.Game Esports48c1,841$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.552339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed FOKUS51c1,664$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.2213044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked BC.Game Esports38c1,643$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.5324538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe207…56c7backed BC.Game Esports41c1,551$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.693435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked FOKUS51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73581244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed FOKUS52c1,306$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.125248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked BC.Game Esports43c1,269$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.6865650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa23…33e0backed BC.Game Esports10c1,266$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.84933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked BC.Game Esports49c1,163$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.0131451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed BC.Game Esports32c1,132$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.8531654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea28…383ebacked BC.Game Esports47c1,091$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.6240%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked BC.Game Esports49c1,057$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.1710252%53 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed BC.Game Esports48c1,027$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.934955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked FOKUS50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed FOKUS52c992.85$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.6444648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked BC.Game Esports50c979.69$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.6578963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed FOKUS70c978.24$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.7213453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FOKUS55c971.58$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.211,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed BC.Game Esports50c970$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48541850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FOKUS57c966.65$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.091,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed FOKUS76c962.45$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.7811546.1%53 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed FOKUS76c962.45$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.786168.9%42 W · 19 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked FOKUS76c962.45$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.7812352.8%65 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed BC.Game Esports38c945.79$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1969635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed FOKUS77c939.18$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.5236554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed BC.Game Esports13c886.2$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.91,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked BC.Game Esports1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101943.6%7 W · 187 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed FOKUS79c782.67$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.247757.1%44 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed FOKUS52c761.36$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.4546749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FOKUS57c711.94$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.0488746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2b…6813backed BC.Game Esports49c702.32$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.142254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked FOKUS51c671.92$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.2421146%97 W · 114 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed BC.Game Esports49c668.27$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.4436742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed BC.Game Esports42c656.24$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.439850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked FOKUS78c633.81$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.439058.9%53 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FOKUS58c632.2$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.551,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc426…20b4backed FOKUS54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2769656.3%54 W · 42 L+10.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BC.Game Esports23c588.92$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.775,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked FOKUS53c577.58$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.4618654.8%102 W · 84 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed FOKUS77c574.86$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.996854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BC.Game Esports47c559.78$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.025,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed FOKUS66c536.05$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.1820045.5%91 W · 109 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ff…5f94backed FOKUS79c520.72$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.3515259.9%91 W · 61 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed BC.Game Esports47c519.12$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9931452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked FOKUS76c515.05$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.125064%32 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa162…479dbacked FOKUS71c511.93$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.483145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked FOKUS52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2406947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed FOKUS75c490.81$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.721351.2%109 W · 104 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed FOKUS76c477.81$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.478552.9%45 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed FOKUS76c477.81$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.475466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed FOKUS76c461.97$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.2510347.6%49 W · 54 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked BC.Game Esports14c458.19$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9834147.5%162 W · 179 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed BC.Game Esports31c449.95$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4855845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked FOKUS53c441.89$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.6935550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed FOKUS54c427.44$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.6227950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked FOKUS75c395.02$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.563158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a4…bf13backed FOKUS70c393.52$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.063951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked BC.Game Esports26c367.54$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5635449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed FOKUS53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3636749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa485…92a5backed FOKUS53c363.34$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.514854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed FOKUS53c352.87$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.936645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed FOKUS68c352.54$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.475347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed BC.Game Esports15c323.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2960838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FOKUS61c322.63$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.341,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa033…4938backed FOKUS69c313.76$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.898545.9%39 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked FOKUS64c306.87$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.025658.9%33 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed BC.Game Esports47c300.14$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0713556.3%76 W · 59 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed FOKUS51c299.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9953444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.