TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,431 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No66c1,500$990 inLost-$989.991,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fa7…eb68backed Yes34c1,190$400 inWon+$790.318145.7%37 W · 44 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No61c879.39$537 inLost-$537.431,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cf7…737ebacked Yes34c588.24$200 inWon+$388.241471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b0…537abacked Yes40c375$150 inWon+$225250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No63c347.82$220 inLost-$219.914,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0606…1d57backed Yes36c265$95 inWon+$1705837.9%22 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b24…103bbacked Yes40c220.33$88 inWon+$132.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No66c202.8$133 inLost-$133.1883158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea3…466bbacked Yes40c137.82$55 inWon+$82.342941.4%12 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Yes33c100$33 inWon+$66.9913151.1%67 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No66c50$33 inLost-$3395260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf71…9f1cbacked Yes39c50$20 inWon+$30.3711051.8%57 W · 53 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2481…878dbacked Yes34c44.12$15 inWon+$29.122532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Yes36c39.62$14 inWon+$25.2223948.5%116 W · 123 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inWon+$14.4834849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No60c32.44$19 inLost-$19.4692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No66c20$13 inLost-$13.260267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.