NBA · resolved market
Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc27164c7922133c39dd6c6f91d588cd5d2694b9d3c8a80f5e9dbbe35c8ec2ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…21cbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,121$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.81 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 68c | 940.86$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.99 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked Yes | 32c | 938.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed No | 68c | 540$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…6670backed Yes | 32c | 513.25$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 67c | 505.14$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 64c | 499.48$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.63 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Yes | 35c | 333.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.2 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed No | 69c | 322.98$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.86 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…26a7backed Yes | 32c | 314.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…16f0backed Yes | 31c | 227.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 66c | 212.66$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 64c | 205.14$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedce…28f7backed Yes | 50c | 187.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…afa2backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b24…103bbacked Yes | 33c | 73.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fa…6ab0backed Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 68c | 22.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 76c | 19.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 70c | 15.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5this page
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-5.5)76ers won
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-6.5)76ers won
- 76ers vs. Pacers76ers won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jay Huff: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kam Jones: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Kam Jones: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: 76ers (-10.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-6.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-7.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-8.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-9.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.