NBA · resolved market
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x891d726c535ed812e4ad4bf383223cdff5a250ce23b1e04b4576d4fe28251176
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,937$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 69c | 1,577$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.32 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 68c | 1,478$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.16 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,457$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.14 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,121$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.55 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 68c | 1,036$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.5 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 32c | 923.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.45 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…6ad4backed Yes | 32c | 796.79$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.82 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 65c | 638$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.95 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…6670backed Yes | 33c | 522.87$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…9165backed Yes | 35c | 495$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 72c | 362$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.19 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 50c | 308.37$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 66c | 243.34$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Yes | 36c | 235$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.92 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bc…f2fabacked Yes | 31c | 216.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.29 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…8357backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b24…103bbacked Yes | 32c | 155.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Yes | 32c | 154.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 73c | 150.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89fa…6ab0backed Yes | 31c | 143.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fb…9a62backed Yes | 30c | 120.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 69c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Yes | 36c | 56.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…4631backed Yes | 41c | 56.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 41.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c05…fabfbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 76 | 73.7%56 W · 20 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 33.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 37c | 33.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 19.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-5.5)76ers won
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-6.5)76ers won
- 76ers vs. Pacers76ers won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jay Huff: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kam Jones: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Kam Jones: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: 76ers (-10.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-6.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-7.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-8.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-9.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.