MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02415d4845f0507d9fcb79bcc6e34c520dcd6162a5d405a3f72a442eb6ca6acb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 3,075$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked New York Yankees | 72c | 3,062$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.64 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 1,220$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.3 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 417.32$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf490…63afbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 56c | 237.25$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 203.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 153.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 124.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770f…ac44backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 104.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 47.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 36.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 35.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb09c…fe75backed New York Yankees | 57c | 27.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked New York Yankees | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…eebfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 20.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-6.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.