MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x211a40950d85644c74fe46dd2364a15e78a03cba03c644629f4aad192a49ba14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 55c | 37,718$20,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,593.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes | 45c | 34,025$15,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,713.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Yes | 47c | 14,129$6,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,488.4 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed No | 56c | 8,800$4,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,912.6 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 53c | 8,541$4,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,526.6 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 2,294$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.95 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 496 | 50.2%249 W · 247 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Yes | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 48c | 832$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.64 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 45c | 829.15$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.88 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 46c | 770.8$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.63 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 53c | 677$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.81 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed No | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 44c | 317.04$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 44c | 311.85$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.26 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 58c | 247$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…047ebacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Yes | 47c | 204$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b0…293fbacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 45c | 160.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 55c | 160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked No | 55c | 144.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 44c | 137$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed No | 54c | 97.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…a95fbacked No | 55c | 79.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 45c | 66.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 269 | 62.1%167 W · 102 L | +44.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 46c | 65.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 55c | 54.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed No | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 193 | 41.5%80 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 45c | 47.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 45c | 33.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked Yes | 46c | 32.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…e7aabacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…3ef3backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 53c | 27.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 661 | 59.5%393 W · 268 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 45c | 26.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 45c | 24.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-6.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.