TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,965 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd5e…9040backed Under66c2,412$1,590 inLost-$1,590.131,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over33c2,002$661 inWon+$1,3415,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Under80c232$185 inLost-$184.5314943.6%65 W · 84 L-17.3wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Over34c139.9$47 inWon+$92.699956.6%56 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over20c125$25 inWon+$1001,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over40c122.5$49 inWon+$73.51,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over21c100$21 inWon+$799,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under66c80$53 inLost-$53.161,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over40c78$31 inWon+$46.83,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under67c73$49 inLost-$48.661,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x312c…ceecbacked Under66c71$47 inLost-$47.131838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over34c68.03$23 inWon+$44.945748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Over40c56.98$23 inWon+$34.1916250.6%82 W · 80 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under65c44.29$29 inLost-$28.794,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over34c42.08$14 inWon+$27.9578854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Over40c37$15 inWon+$22.214943.6%65 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Over33c32$11 inWon+$21.4411041.8%46 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba31…8794backed Under67c30.51$20 inLost-$20.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Over33c30.51$10 inWon+$20.4435747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc83…fdd4backed Over40c28.38$11 inWon+$17.032740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.