MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x333c83f87405bb9c64d33bc29d38042e59b9979d958c9e7f960ccb062a2266d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 33c | 23,854$7,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,760.86 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 66c | 22,089$14,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,459.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 27c | 18,791$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 11,263$8,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,015.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 73c | 11,123$8,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,011.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 33c | 1,800$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.95 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Over | 69c | 724.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.97 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 31c | 621.52$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.67 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 33c | 453$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf490…63afbacked Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 67c | 265.18$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 67c | 243.5$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 75c | 237.52$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Under | 29c | 200.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a8…13e4backed Under | 18c | 199.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 22c | 180.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 68c | 145$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Under | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 48c | 127.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d1…b571backed Under | 34c | 87.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…d8d7backed Under | 34c | 87.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…f6f5backed Under | 24c | 63.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 44c | 54.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…ab75backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 56c | 48.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 68c | 33.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 33c | 31.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed Over | 66c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 73c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-6.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.