TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,252

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,911 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under61c16,393$10,000 inWon+$6,392.689643.8%42 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over39c10,388$4,046 inLost-$4,046.3911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over40c4,612$1,838 inLost-$1,838.310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec11…953fbacked Over58c603.45$350 inLost-$3504136.6%15 W · 26 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Over41c487.8$200 inLost-$2009054.4%49 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed Over43c300$129 inLost-$1297746.8%36 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under49c214.29$105 inWon+$109.294065%26 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+35.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over15c165$25 inLost-$24.753,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Over21c114$24 inLost-$23.517550.3%88 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb3…5fe5backed Under45c105.66$48 inWon+$58.117163.4%45 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under72c63$46 inWon+$17.378,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x268b…a36ebacked Over63c35.54$22 inLost-$22.3366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over42c28.77$12 inLost-$12.21,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7815…7310backed Under70c21.43$15 inWon+$6.433262.5%20 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.