MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe41d5b81d19087a920965882af19a6a33e54510da6bb540f22bd26dabbd6d7f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 23c | 8,746$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 65c | 2,834$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 2,483$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.66 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 67c | 2,107$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.63 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 1,969$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 1,894$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Under | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 27c | 828.63$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.7 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 64c | 601.64$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.05 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 71c | 597$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.13 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 37c | 577.85$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.7 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84c1…4114backed Over | 26c | 575.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +912%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 35c | 400.02$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked Under | 65c | 395.38$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Over | 46c | 368$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 65c | 341.54$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 33c | 311.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 33c | 308.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 224.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 39c | 179.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 35c | 144$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…0defbacked Over | 36c | 130.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Over | 36c | 124.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 65c | 119$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 65c | 116.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Under | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked Under | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 65.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 45c | 32.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…7310backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…61b5backed Under | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-6.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.