MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb46c7d6ef06ba00ff3bb3dae824830b82b420d5552d73d8d18ea988203e254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 57c | 17,350$9,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,815.12 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 12,350$4,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,997.26 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 12,015$6,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,571.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 2c | 9,993$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.61 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 7,700$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,005 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 51c | 6,352$3,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,242.02 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees | 64c | 5,017$3,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,211.16 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 65c | 4,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 2,760$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed New York Yankees | 57c | 2,169$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.42 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 64c | 1,906$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 41c | 1,592$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 1,500$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.04 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 1,300$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.99 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 1,190$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.4 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed New York Yankees | 66c | 863.98$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.79 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 686.91$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.13 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 632.1$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.73 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed New York Yankees | 51c | 599.97$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.57 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 4c | 555.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked New York Yankees | 51c | 521.47$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 475.22$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 426.36$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 357.32$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.19 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 348.27$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Yankees | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 65c | 291$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…f8acbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed New York Yankees | 46c | 211.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…047ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 208.68$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees | 45c | 188.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 186.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed New York Yankees | 65c | 149$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 137.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…3c4cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 131.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Yankees | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked New York Yankees | 17c | 129.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Yankees | 36c | 118$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed New York Yankees | 65c | 103.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 64c | 99.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 89.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 70.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…d1ddbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 61.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked New York Yankees | 49c | 52.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 44.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed New York Yankees | 58c | 42.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed New York Yankees | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed New York Yankees | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed New York Yankees | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked New York Yankees | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked New York Yankees | 64c | 24.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 24.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-6.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-7.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.