TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will RB Leipzig vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,217 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Yes31c43,732$13,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,369.083,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed No71c34,439$24,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,987.312373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+39.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No70c6,431$4,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.9775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes18c4,283$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.911,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked Yes56c1,875$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+284.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No30c1,844$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.241,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x169d…fb3dbacked No43c1,508$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Yes3c1,014$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305046%23 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdda…2408backed No2c1,000$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick2cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…5909backed Yes7c827.86$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Yes23c630.71$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes29c600$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1745425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No37c540.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.544129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004542.2%19 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No30c508.9$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.1522245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8de7…f96dbacked No2c500$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No32c399.96$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.975623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e3…47acbacked Yes17c364.71$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…7012backed Yes19c327.32$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf591…39c8backed Yes57c321.74$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3570%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc736…e547backed Yes70c284.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes23c263.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.329252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7bd…68c4backed Yes19c258.96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No38c223.01$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3824541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed No49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes31c194.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0330647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes44c186$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7111762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes23c159$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7544655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0391…ef9bbacked Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick27cpaid+150.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes57c154.42$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21af…8a8ebacked Yes47c153.06$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4114…b9acbacked Yes19c146.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.741020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Yes10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-55.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes18c130$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.415847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe3…949cbacked Yes31c129.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402025%5 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No50c128.76$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.061,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No67c126.82$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5333737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No76c105$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3522669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb903…9942backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+52.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb91…0cacbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd70c…3da8backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2085…dd27backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305032%16 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0bb…60c2backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed No62c97.22$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6616046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd983…d92dbacked Yes31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304235.7%15 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x224a…11ddbacked Yes52c96.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes20c93.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6114642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yes17c90$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.314756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes36c89.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.857948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes33c87.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5220153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes18c87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9918545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x315d…b420backed Yes58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No75c85$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5322332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No33c76.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7428822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fe1…4769backed Yes53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Yes24c75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes18c65.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ba…5afbbacked Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed No27c59.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6919254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes17c59.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4142046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cab…8228backed Yes31c58.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+102.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x452f…b277backed Yes19c57.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed No45c55.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.525054%27 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0742…86a0backed Yes31c52.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.58067.5%54 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1038845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154238.1%16 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No72c49.67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8327554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5883…0eccbacked Yes31c49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ad…8dddbacked No34c47.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.683438.2%13 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b5…4e3dbacked Yes32c46.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefef…94b8backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No61c39.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.78541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No48c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2439558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x27d0…7943backed Yes64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4375…e3dabacked Yes71c30.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Yes54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22564%16 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5df9…4eb2backed Yes75c29.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked No70c26.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.09977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes60c16.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Yes65c16.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed No70c14.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.296758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.