AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x039ad5e62a81f1f06ae5f533bf04c0ba45fcfcbb7f5e7980d818eda5ca881bb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 37c | 1,266$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 40cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…971cbacked Yes | 74c | 811.05$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 16c | 784.66$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 26c | 645.95$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 63c | 631$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed Yes | 75c | 563.07$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 45c | 515.32$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.13 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 63c | 444$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 68c | 313.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 45c | 301.6$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a2…9f1ebacked Yes | 49c | 262.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 30c | 223.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…d2c7backed Yes | 54c | 222.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 63c | 191$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…20c1backed Yes | 54c | 185.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 181.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed No | 55c | 166.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…f299backed Yes | 68c | 164.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 27c | 160.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…51acbacked Yes | 60c | 156.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 127.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 57c | 124.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…9350backed No | 40c | 122.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…ccdabacked No | 55c | 114$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 109.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4009…84cdbacked No | 38c | 108.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…0dbcbacked No | 46c | 108.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 47c | 106.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…3377backed Yes | 77c | 102.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…dab8backed Yes | 41c | 83.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 37c | 81.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6933…c265backed Yes | 50c | 80.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee59backed Yes | 47c | 76.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed No | 47c | 71.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 47c | 67.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked No | 46c | 65.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 48c | 62.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…3111backed No | 59c | 58.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…0627backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…fc02backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…e584backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 44c | 45.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…06dabacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3f…9936backed Yes | 75c | 39.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…c76abacked Yes | 55c | 39.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 47c | 38.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaac5…1a5dbacked Yes | 67c | 37.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a9…0cadbacked Yes | 46c | 35.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…9984backed No | 32c | 32.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…4714backed Yes | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 43c | 30.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…376abacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…3083backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…5c46backed Yes | 47c | 27.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbb…2779backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 47c | 25.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…15edbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…e4b1backed Yes | 46c | 22.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd390…1b1cbacked Yes | 44c | 22.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5313…9309backed No | 56c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 77c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
- Will Grok be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
- Will Paramount+ be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
- Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.