Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b4cd52fe6d6f463b0e9dac658580f13727c1faa02ea6ad1c5bd78ae95e3f3f

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $123,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $141,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,840 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed No	18c	14,430$2,568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,568.06	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb6…f90bbacked Yes	50c	9,002$4,501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,501	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8893…be06backed No	50c	9,002$4,501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,501	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed No	16c	5,000$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No	16c	3,112$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.81	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes	79c	2,663$2,104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$559.27	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No	20c	2,593$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.91	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No	16c	2,500$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No	16c	2,319$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.06	760	48.7%370 W · 390 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No	18c	2,188$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.89	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No	17c	2,111$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.22	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…033ebacked No	4c	1,661$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.43	174	42%73 W · 101 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No	17c	1,609$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.63	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24a1…32f2backed No	4c	1,457$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.1	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed No	17c	1,324$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.08	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-4.3wins	-0.22per pick	37cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No	17c	1,200$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.75	343	30%103 W · 240 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x896a…688dbacked No	10c	1,180$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.42	110	31.8%35 W · 75 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked No	17c	1,176$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	137	29.9%41 W · 96 L	-12.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No	17c	1,052$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.2	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	5c	878.46$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.92	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e1c…b3abbacked No	20c	844.73$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.95	275	20.4%56 W · 219 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked No	17c	748.4$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.81	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6c…998fbacked No	18c	723.62$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.25	250	31.6%79 W · 171 L	-9.2wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked No	20c	648.04$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.71	70	50%35 W · 35 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No	11c	641.32$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.58	199	39.7%79 W · 120 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No	18c	621.53$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.49	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	7c	557.49$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.43	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No	17c	555.37$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.41	565	41.1%232 W · 333 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	20c	546.16$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.16	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No	16c	537.86$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.14	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked No	18c	520.16$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.62	128	42.2%54 W · 74 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89e6…5501backed No	18c	478.34$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.17	230	36.1%83 W · 147 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No	17c	473.01$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.68	258	48.4%125 W · 133 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No	17c	393.84$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.6	848	44.3%376 W · 472 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No	10c	375.83$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.84	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No	17c	338.75$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	550	45.1%248 W · 302 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaca…f5d5backed No	17c	337.98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.46	148	36.5%54 W · 94 L	-9.5wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed No	19c	335.73$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.79	858	51.2%439 W · 419 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	6c	304.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked No	21c	300.58$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.12	210	46.7%98 W · 112 L	+12.0wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes	80c	269.76$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.59	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed No	10c	267.96$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.69	1,563	39.8%622 W · 941 L	-51.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked No	7c	243.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	575	41.7%240 W · 335 L	-20.8wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked No	6c	242.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	257	19.1%49 W · 208 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed No	21c	225.71$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	143	42.7%61 W · 82 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Yes	79c	217.62$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.7	847	51%432 W · 415 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f0…6fb4backed No	17c	178.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.08	184	35.3%65 W · 119 L	-8.8wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a18…61a0backed No	8c	162.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked No	19c	150$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed No	18c	146$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.28	311	49.5%154 W · 157 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes	80c	140.35$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.07	285	47.7%136 W · 149 L	-12.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5d8…ab9abacked No	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	91	40.7%37 W · 54 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No	18c	119.76$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	1,262	47.5%600 W · 662 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No	21c	106.23$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.15	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6e…3288backed No	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Yes	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	171	62%106 W · 65 L	+9.1wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb040…ef71backed No	19c	97.56$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-6.2wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked No	18c	91.24$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No	17c	90$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	397	46.3%184 W · 213 L	-28.9wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8328…e5ebbacked No	18c	85.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	365	43.3%158 W · 207 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2568…ef92backed No	17c	80$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	307	51.1%157 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked No	18c	70.43$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	908	40.9%371 W · 537 L	-64.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b91…bb75backed No	19c	67.6$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x264f…1b98backed No	17c	64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	137	32.1%44 W · 93 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b2…9460backed No	21c	61.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	356	19.4%69 W · 287 L	-21.4wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No	17c	59.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	618	55.3%342 W · 276 L	+23.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Yes	77c	45.57$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.48	1,063	31.7%337 W · 726 L	-33.7wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e43…2578backed Yes	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	399	56.6%226 W · 173 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Yes	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	122	52.5%64 W · 58 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1e…5bb5backed Yes	80c	15.34$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.07	457	40.3%184 W · 273 L	-28.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe36a…ae58backed Yes	79c	14.01$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.9	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07?this page
Will Ecuador vs. Guatemala end in a draw?No won
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event