Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x043873805d55b98bfe6d60dc3c25eab0c84f67a84d4b630540a2b4c00ceb0217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,461$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 68c | 1,324$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.54 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 43c | 1,105$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 1,073$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.13 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 22c | 686.3$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.1 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 518.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 467.31$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 62c | 438.52$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.58 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 32c | 427.77$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.15 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 47c | 427.41$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 404.26$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.21 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…aec1backed No | 69c | 337.67$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 55c | 317.36$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.89 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 255.32$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 239.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 60c | 211.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 66c | 195.28$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 49c | 195.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 172.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 171.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 32c | 156.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…357bbacked No | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 50c | 144.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 25c | 126.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 123.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 19c | 119.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 118.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 112.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 111.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 105.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…b044backed No | 32c | 101.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 90.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 89.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 33c | 89.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 85.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 53c | 80.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 56c | 79.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 73c | 72.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 66.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 66.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 56c | 64.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 63.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 60.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 59.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 64c | 59.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 27c | 55.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 76c | 53.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 53.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 24c | 49.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 48.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 48.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 70c | 48.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 73c | 45.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…f04fbacked Yes | 43c | 44.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 43.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 44c | 42.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 42.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 73c | 41.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 54c | 41.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…b976backed Yes | 32c | 40.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +209.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked Yes | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 37.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 56c | 36.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 36.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 35.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 33.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 71c | 32.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 30.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 29.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 28.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 26.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 25.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 25.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.