Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379ce587dd04b63677e1b3f87662820205062290997991ad62c16d546d9aa18c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 1,700$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.76 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 1,452$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.67 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 688.27$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.46 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 504.36$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.49 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 410.9$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.25 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 376.78$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 29c | 363.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 357.65$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed Yes | 35c | 326.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 35c | 317.14$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.14 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 296.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 267$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 41c | 244$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 47c | 199.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 55c | 199.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 43c | 187.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.54 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 186.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 163.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 40c | 145$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 131.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 35c | 119.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 119.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 118.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…f4d3backed Yes | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 113$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 109.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 104.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 94.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 49c | 92.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 51c | 92.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 92.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…f04fbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 77.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 77.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 65.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 65.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 54c | 61.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 60.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…b044backed Yes | 59c | 60.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 54.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 53.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 53c | 51.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 47.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 50c | 46.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 49c | 46.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 45.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 54c | 44.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd4…b2f2backed No | 47c | 41.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 58c | 40.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 47c | 39.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 39.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 37.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 36.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 49c | 34.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 46c | 31.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 43c | 29.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 50c | 28.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…7c6bbacked No | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 57c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 23.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 47c | 21.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 21.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…11b3backed Yes | 61c | 18.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.