Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x043ca458ead3e6f08b864ec1ada29c656217ba863be50a8da732ea5475d8bdd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 25c | 2,726$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.2 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 914.87$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 741.93$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 492.81$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.91 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 32c | 444.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 335.19$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 45c | 287.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 258$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 13c | 216.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 210.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 203.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 200.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 200.13$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 142.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 37c | 135.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 128.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 126.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 54c | 118.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 31c | 117.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 107.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 42c | 102.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 38c | 100.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 89.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 87.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 46c | 81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 16c | 77.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 61c | 70.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb162…fa5ebacked No | 70c | 68.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 72c | 66.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…df85backed Yes | 40c | 63.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 63.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 60.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 72c | 59.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…9145backed Yes | 52c | 55.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 52.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 49.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 69c | 49.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 48.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 45.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 44.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 44.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 38.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 36c | 36.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 36.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 30c | 35.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 33.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 62c | 29.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 28.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 56c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 18.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 60c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 64c | 18.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.