Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe462fd4b038cd856b9197fbb721ab01efdd49411db6ddee58fd5290cd0921ee3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 9c | 1,463$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 13c | 488.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 320.31$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 73c | 296.44$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 272.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 262.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 249.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 220.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 201.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 197$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 36c | 176.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.14 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 6c | 169.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 13c | 155.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 11c | 154.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 149.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 54c | 149.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 31c | 128.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 120.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 119.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 115.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 115.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 63c | 112$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 110.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 107.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 44c | 100.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…df85backed No | 62c | 99.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 29c | 83.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 81.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 36c | 77.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 76.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 75.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 70.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 39c | 66.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 66.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 78c | 60.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 58.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 71c | 56.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 56.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 36c | 54.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 51.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 68c | 51.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 50.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 48.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 68c | 48.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 45.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 30c | 44.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 41.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 41.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 40.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 39.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 37c | 39.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 38.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 28c | 38.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 37.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 30c | 34.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 34.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 32c | 34.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 31c | 33.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 61c | 32.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 68c | 26.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…41b5backed Yes | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 18.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.