Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f72ce0c3395754f65553cea5eb323f715132cdaa9fc81fc175a5155c4c645f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 60c | 2,046$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.33 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 38c | 1,748$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.14 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 26c | 927$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.12 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 70c | 798.18$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.45 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 30c | 788.18$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.45 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Over | 77c | 520$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 58c | 299.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 11c | 250.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 21c | 236.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 70c | 231.67$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 21c | 200.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 163.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 68c | 151.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 25c | 143$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 25c | 141.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 77c | 133$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 69c | 104.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 69c | 101.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d8…294abacked Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 55c | 85.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 70c | 85.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 30c | 79.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 31c | 74.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…8a6ebacked Under | 46c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 47c | 66.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…61b5backed Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 53c | 64.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 62c | 63.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 62c | 59.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 67c | 48.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Over | 65c | 26.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 63c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Over | 68c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 62c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Sporting Kansas City O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Sporting Kansas City O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City: St. Louis City SC O/U 0.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.