CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Mindfreak (BO1) - HyperX & Intel Nationals Group A

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x061c3031ae6bd91e478d84a4659e48d91b46e185194b575513b087cef8e628da

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: THUNDER dOWNUNDERof THUNDER dOWNUNDER, Mindfreak
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $110,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $149,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,531 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed Mindfreak	18c	12,283$2,232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,231.95	2,626	30.9%812 W · 1,814 L	-105.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Mindfreak	18c	8,961$1,612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,612.05	1,407	38.9%547 W · 860 L	-41.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mindfreak	17c	4,248$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.48	1,579	29.7%469 W · 1,110 L	-86.9wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Mindfreak	15c	2,615$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.26	3,459	29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L	-279.9wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Mindfreak	15c	2,150$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.51	1,779	59.1%1,052 W · 727 L	+104.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Mindfreak	20c	1,706$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.6	1,033	53.2%550 W · 483 L	+64.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER	78c	1,636$1,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356.65	167	38.9%65 W · 102 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Mindfreak	20c	1,410$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.48	2,776	37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L	-140.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Mindfreak	8c	1,310$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.31	387	39.5%153 W · 234 L	-15.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Mindfreak	16c	1,225$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.04	1,848	41.7%770 W · 1,078 L	-69.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Mindfreak	17c	1,195$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.87	380	32.1%122 W · 258 L	-18.7wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Mindfreak	16c	1,193$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	754	38.9%293 W · 461 L	-38.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x602a…9a6ebacked Mindfreak	23c	1,179$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.46	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Mindfreak	13c	1,178$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.14	883	30.7%271 W · 612 L	-63.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Mindfreak	26c	1,150$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	93	39.8%37 W · 56 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Mindfreak	28c	1,083$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.44	550	39.6%218 W · 332 L	-20.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Mindfreak	26c	920.53$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.04	257	47.5%122 W · 135 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked Mindfreak	24c	880.31$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.53	123	43.9%54 W · 69 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked Mindfreak	12c	840$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	351	31.1%109 W · 242 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Mindfreak	16c	800$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.63	2,434	44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L	-64.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca8…b713backed Mindfreak	22c	728.54$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	75	45.3%34 W · 41 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Mindfreak	8c	671.79$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.44	336	27.7%93 W · 243 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Mindfreak	14c	663.62$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.96	664	36.6%243 W · 421 L	-35.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked Mindfreak	7c	654$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.32	97	32%31 W · 66 L	-11.7wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-36%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Mindfreak	8c	636.5$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.92	482	40%193 W · 289 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Mindfreak	18c	621.03$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.33	3,910	36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L	-197.6wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER	72c	609.99$439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.6	303	49.8%151 W · 152 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Mindfreak	15c	600$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2,522	43%1,085 W · 1,437 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Mindfreak	10c	585$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.43	1,083	42.1%456 W · 627 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER	76c	500$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.08	559	41%229 W · 330 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Mindfreak	13c	489.76$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.58	232	44.8%104 W · 128 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Mindfreak	26c	443.66$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.39	91	46.2%42 W · 49 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER	79c	437$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.5	2,774	24.5%681 W · 2,093 L	-295.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Mindfreak	10c	405.63$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.2	758	33.4%253 W · 505 L	-48.9wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-31%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d99…9c27backed Mindfreak	15c	399.91$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.99	144	39.6%57 W · 87 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcce…c920backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER	75c	388.2$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.34	173	61.3%106 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Mindfreak	12c	381.27$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.05	379	22.2%84 W · 295 L	-43.1wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked Mindfreak	10c	364.26$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	512	52.1%267 W · 245 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183b…b6e9backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER	78c	358.02$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.02	320	54.4%174 W · 146 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Mindfreak	20c	342.84$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.71	452	38.3%173 W · 279 L	-29.4wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Mindfreak	19c	341.33$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.43	630	38.6%243 W · 387 L	-26.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Mindfreak	14c	331.87$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.26	2,473	34.6%855 W · 1,618 L	-188.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Mindfreak	17c	328.54$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.02	138	71%98 W · 40 L	+13.7wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+12%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Mindfreak	19c	320$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.47	664	46.4%308 W · 356 L	-11.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Mindfreak	18c	299.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.6	2,622	47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L	-33.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Mindfreak	19c	286.94$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.36	270	37.8%102 W · 168 L	-9.8wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Mindfreak	20c	269.33$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	4,933	37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L	-249.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Mindfreak	20c	265.1$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.57	215	36.3%78 W · 137 L	-11.8wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Mindfreak	19c	254.14$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.06	1,302	41.2%536 W · 766 L	-50.1wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dd6…9fb8backed Mindfreak	10c	252.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Mindfreak	10c	220$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	447	47.2%211 W · 236 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Mindfreak	18c	200$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.17	1,676	51.1%857 W · 819 L	+21.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER	76c	190.7$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.61	2,326	45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L	-62.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Mindfreak	24c	178.58$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	104	54.8%57 W · 47 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Mindfreak	20c	173$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	2,136	42.9%916 W · 1,220 L	-68.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Mindfreak	11c	167.8$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	388	44.3%172 W · 216 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Mindfreak	20c	148$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	2,508	41%1,029 W · 1,479 L	-115.5wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b2d…6708backed Mindfreak	22c	140$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x177d…158abacked Mindfreak	19c	133.27$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.74	32	50%16 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed Mindfreak	14c	130.09$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	457	48.1%220 W · 237 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Mindfreak	23c	119.94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	807	40.3%325 W · 482 L	-3.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER	78c	114.01$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.77	2,110	47.2%995 W · 1,115 L	-62.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Mindfreak	20c	113.2$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.46	492	42.1%207 W · 285 L	-17.8wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5005…bcb1backed Mindfreak	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbe6…4a1bbacked Mindfreak	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER	74c	99.99$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	58	62.1%36 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aaa…e611backed Mindfreak	26c	85.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec24…d744backed Mindfreak	25c	74$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Mindfreak	20c	72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	2,349	42.5%998 W · 1,351 L	-72.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc6…b1f2backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER	79c	58.74$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Mindfreak	26c	57.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	160	32.5%52 W · 108 L	-7.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a80…df6dbacked Mindfreak	28c	53.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	108	67.6%73 W · 35 L	+6.7wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Mindfreak	28c	53.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	351	41.6%146 W · 205 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f78fbacked Mindfreak	26c	46.15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-4.8wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Mindfreak	22c	45.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	526	45.1%237 W · 289 L	-20.2wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER	75c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	1,274	71.5%911 W · 363 L	+3.3wins	0.00per pick	71cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e5b…292bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER	74c	31.05$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.07	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfba…583cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER	75c	25.32$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.33	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	59cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08fe…355fbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER	77c	15.64$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.64	106	59.4%63 W · 43 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Mindfreak (BO1) - HyperX & Intel Nationals Group A

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market