Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x065add7d2b3a4a0353f5781caf321267fd2dae7f49ea86b4d3e5af04dd6f822e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf6…a3eabacked Yes | 27c | 101,836$27,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,495.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7a…bf1fbacked No | 73c | 101,836$74,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,495.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 22c | 4,525$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.25 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 57c | 3,555$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.04 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Yes | 73c | 3,090$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 61c | 2,212$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.44 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…d4dabacked Yes | 27c | 1,900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 26c | 1,309$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.08 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,217$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 29c | 1,048$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…e51cbacked Yes | 43c | 881$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 27c | 779.3$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 69c | 772.73$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 724.38$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.58 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 27c | 700$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 211 | 53.1%112 W · 99 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 32c | 516.12$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 29c | 484.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.12 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Yes | 71c | 442.1$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.43 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 72c | 436.15$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…1601backed Yes | 26c | 424.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed No | 72c | 396$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 72c | 394.52$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…269bbacked No | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…40fabacked Yes | 26c | 261.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…f39fbacked Yes | 67c | 249.57$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…9178backed Yes | 75c | 221.16$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa08f…44d5backed Yes | 27c | 217.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 77c | 206.74$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 73c | 187$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ff…40d8backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 145$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 26c | 125.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…35b1backed Yes | 49c | 117$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb558…6d77backed Yes | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 42c | 108.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…63a7backed Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed Yes | 65c | 107.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…e582backed No | 75c | 104.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Yes | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…044ebacked Yes | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…f204backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ef…9ea8backed No | 75c | 86.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 85.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…eb69backed No | 75c | 80.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…b8babacked No | 74c | 76.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…cb54backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa954…bfdabacked No | 74c | 76.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…c656backed Yes | 26c | 75.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb418…e588backed No | 75c | 74.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…bd13backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1187backed No | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df8…5332backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…9547backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…2a77backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…f868backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…a6e7backed No | 75c | 73.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…e44fbacked No | 72c | 68.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…7d9dbacked No | 74c | 67.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff2…6714backed No | 75c | 64.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…4258backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 27c | 55.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 35c | 53.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Yes | 52c | 48.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ab…496fbacked No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…4056backed Yes | 58c | 34.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed Yes | 45c | 33.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0aa…a094backed No | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Chelsea end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-22?Yes won
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.