TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fluxo W7Mof Fluxo W7M, paiN Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x048f…9992backed paiN Gaming1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee8b…dcd9backed Fluxo W7M74c3,055$2,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.361560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed paiN Gaming37c2,246$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.8910353.4%55 W · 48 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed paiN Gaming44c1,576$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed paiN Gaming1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+89.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Fluxo W7M61c1,402$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.362,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b26…6091backed paiN Gaming16c1,401$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.343327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb90…c03dbacked paiN Gaming40c1,353$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.171533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Fluxo W7M55c1,323$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.8187844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked paiN Gaming12c1,301$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.462,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked paiN Gaming20c1,251$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.179823.5%23 W · 75 L-10.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked paiN Gaming18c1,132$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.871,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Fluxo W7M68c1,092$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.561,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed paiN Gaming3c1,050$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306214.5%9 W · 53 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked paiN Gaming2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405f…747fbacked paiN Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104961.2%30 W · 19 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+49.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked paiN Gaming43c976.58$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.5515860.8%96 W · 62 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed paiN Gaming21c846.03$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.671,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed paiN Gaming2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed paiN Gaming7c721.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1964247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed paiN Gaming18c715.55$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1694134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Fluxo W7M59c709$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.691,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Fluxo W7M56c611.1$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.741,53943.7%673 W · 866 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed paiN Gaming39c593.59$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5310443.3%45 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed paiN Gaming33c517.59$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.480150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed paiN Gaming31c517.26$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0552543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked paiN Gaming38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Fluxo W7M61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19521051.4%108 W · 102 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed paiN Gaming38c472.03$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8169841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Fluxo W7M55c449.6$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.327648.7%37 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked paiN Gaming30c411.43$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.321,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed paiN Gaming18c399.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7557151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc400…21a7backed paiN Gaming46c367.17$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16923149.8%115 W · 116 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked paiN Gaming4c315.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2713014.6%19 W · 111 L-12.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Fluxo W7M70c305.92$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1418046.1%83 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked paiN Gaming41c305.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1817438.5%67 W · 107 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Fluxo W7M65c273.46$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.492,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed paiN Gaming40c243.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7752743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed Fluxo W7M60c242.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.193956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Fluxo W7M74c241.14$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5319743.7%86 W · 111 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe251…8effbacked paiN Gaming21c239.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506949.3%34 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Fluxo W7M73c230.57$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.621,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6777…1a8dbacked paiN Gaming44c225.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022751.5%117 W · 110 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3737…bfd1backed paiN Gaming47c223.11$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8637957.5%218 W · 161 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed paiN Gaming42c210.86$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2716048.1%77 W · 83 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb084…be70backed paiN Gaming7c208.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.565320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Fluxo W7M62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7660538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed paiN Gaming40c187.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7577746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd599…7a1fbacked paiN Gaming18c186.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4213842%58 W · 80 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed paiN Gaming8c182.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.033737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Fluxo W7M59c180.04$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8157349.4%283 W · 290 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ddd…1fc8backed Fluxo W7M59c179.27$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.59259.8%55 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc2…d305backed Fluxo W7M58c170$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.43847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed paiN Gaming10c160$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164327.9%12 W · 31 L-6.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-54.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd257…c66cbacked Fluxo W7M70c143.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.27825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Fluxo W7M69c138.82$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.992,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed Fluxo W7M60c132.75$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9164451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed paiN Gaming40c128$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.153,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Fluxo W7M60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4874637.9%283 W · 463 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked paiN Gaming38c119$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9160243.4%261 W · 341 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed paiN Gaming45c117.85$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.031,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed paiN Gaming40c112.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.087653.9%41 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked paiN Gaming10c111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7218560.5%112 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ac…e2a8backed paiN Gaming10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed Fluxo W7M59c109.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.746041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked paiN Gaming18c109.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6921231.1%66 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8898…e3b8backed paiN Gaming13c107.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410356.3%58 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Fluxo W7M61c106.56$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5613739.4%54 W · 83 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Fluxo W7M58c104.76$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7692342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf9…dde4backed Fluxo W7M62c100.97$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.513156.5%74 W · 57 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked paiN Gaming19c100.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0684041%344 W · 496 L-38.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d65…6a04backed paiN Gaming21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215028%14 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Fluxo W7M60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4095048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed paiN Gaming43c97.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.891,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x616a…8339backed paiN Gaming15c90.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…cee7backed paiN Gaming19c79.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Fluxo W7M71c76.56$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.422758.1%132 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed paiN Gaming22c76.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.951,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2aa…b2eebacked paiN Gaming46c75.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.72850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbac…87c5backed Fluxo W7M61c74.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.094161%25 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Fluxo W7M68c68.09$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.891,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed paiN Gaming38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510847.2%51 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked paiN Gaming43c63.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.715457.8%89 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked paiN Gaming25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1537141.2%153 W · 218 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcd1…5792backed paiN Gaming25c55.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.252860.7%17 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked paiN Gaming27c53.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.237342.9%160 W · 213 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Fluxo W7M65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6769644.4%309 W · 387 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f5…1d29backed Fluxo W7M61c48.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.994445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed paiN Gaming23c45.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5552252.5%274 W · 248 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Fluxo W7M56c37.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6718254.9%100 W · 82 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc4…e2b9backed Fluxo W7M54c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0215045.3%68 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Fluxo W7M71c34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.691,92435.9%691 W · 1,233 L-97.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1d…b968backed Fluxo W7M61c33.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0513470.9%95 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed paiN Gaming40c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.241,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dee…9f2cbacked paiN Gaming41c32.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138746%40 W · 47 L-9.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Fluxo W7M62c29.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4375150.7%381 W · 370 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x70e6…e8f9backed Fluxo W7M56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Fluxo W7M67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.371,05539.6%418 W · 637 L-74.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Fluxo W7M54c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0429536.9%109 W · 186 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc161…bd88backed Fluxo W7M55c21.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8873851.5%380 W · 358 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.