UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x080bc1d3d4e55ef4f8e7da677a0bb07e6cf97560acf56cc515282c72e06be519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Yes | 39c | 4,150$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,521.96 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 61c | 4,089$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed No | 66c | 3,478$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295.97 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 34c | 2,559$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.19 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…442bbacked Yes | 39c | 2,481$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.68 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a22…7b00backed No | 58c | 1,714$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,208$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Yes | 52c | 1,189$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.1 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 55c | 999.82$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.78 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Yes | 45c | 891.32$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.04 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 41c | 825.46$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.02 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…e3c9backed No | 61c | 557.38$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 52c | 544.35$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.51 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Yes | 41c | 514.28$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.63 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 61c | 500$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.5 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed No | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Yes | 6c | 437.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +335%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 59c | 355$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.14 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed No | 58c | 278.81$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed No | 56c | 262.29$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 19c | 249.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…9582backed Yes | 44c | 239.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 42c | 225$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 41c | 224$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed Yes | 10c | 203.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 12cpaid | +542.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…7c09backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…f7a9backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…77a9backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 42c | 89.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Yes | 25c | 83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…314cbacked No | 61c | 78.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…cd0abacked No | 58c | 77.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 37c | 60.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Yes | 42c | 57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…2b21backed Yes | 43c | 56.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 43c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Yes | 45c | 39.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…da99backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…c058backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 26.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 58c | 17.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card)Aleksandar Rakic won
- Will Aleksandar Rakic win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Marcin Tybura win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.