TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,429
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,429 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a32…0086backed Under53c2,000$1,060 inWon+$9401,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over47c1,500$705 inLost-$704.853,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Under29c748.57$217 inWon+$531.4917553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over71c726.14$516 inLost-$515.5652052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Over47c436.72$205 inLost-$205.2615543.2%67 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x164d…50c0backed Over48c372.99$179 inLost-$179.034257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under52c372.74$194 inWon+$178.941,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over53c359.57$191 inLost-$190.572,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under49c112.03$54 inWon+$57.582,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over56c107.08$60 inLost-$59.771,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Over51c83.92$43 inLost-$42.718459.2%109 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under49c76.47$37 inWon+$3937665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Under49c74.1$36 inWon+$37.7118632.3%60 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under45c63.31$28 inWon+$35.1389850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed4f…6134backed Over49c59.14$29 inLost-$29.09850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1812…c143backed Over75c26.27$20 inLost-$19.73871.1%27 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.