TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,323,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,298,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,323,836 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 659 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic49c1,004,281$488,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515,493.941,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Pistons51c500,000$255,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254,999.965154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Pistons52c392,613$203,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,339.895036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pistons52c340,854$177,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177,24436549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Pistons51c237,169$120,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120,65587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Magic48c217,212$104,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,950.166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic49c124,999$60,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,199.361,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Magic49c90,000$44,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,90024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic48c88,089$42,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,460.051,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Pistons50c79,131$39,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,405.1910949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Pistons51c66,103$33,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,451.6815952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Magic50c58,667$29,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,333.2517251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Magic48c55,000$26,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,599.8739842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Pistons51c53,012$27,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,036.1560351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Magic48c49,087$23,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,532.341,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Magic67c40,620$27,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,448.0320758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Magic48c33,332$16,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,232.6574748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d0…5a98backed Pistons52c29,883$15,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,539.24257.1%24 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic49c24,056$11,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,190.394,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Pistons52c23,602$12,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,223.9532351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Magic50c21,494$10,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,747.031,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Pistons51c20,000$10,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,158.3459646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Magic49c19,388$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,887.8829650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Pistons51c18,441$9,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,405.116045%27 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Pistons51c16,904$8,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,620.9390650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Pistons52c16,866$8,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,770.4120843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic48c15,370$7,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,992.579,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Pistons52c14,228$7,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,398.617055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Pistons52c14,009$7,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,283.9863746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Pistons52c13,074$6,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,798.414556.6%82 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Magic60c11,764$7,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,679.4356646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Magic50c11,128$5,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,544.781,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Pistons51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Magic49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.9449244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec9b…be80backed Magic49c9,925$4,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,061.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Pistons51c9,851$5,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,023.911,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Pistons0c9,842$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.231,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Pistons52c9,712$5,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,050.2472241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Magic50c9,700$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,85022041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa75…f082backed Pistons52c9,332$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,852.61729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39eb…0e4cbacked Magic50c8,582$4,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,329.832152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+83.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Magic48c8,320$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,320.031,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Magic48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,16011864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Magic49c6,529$3,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,329.599838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Pistons52c6,515$3,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,368.321,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c0…25b8backed Pistons52c6,331$3,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,292.37757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic50c5,678$2,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,860.521,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pistons50c5,071$2,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,537.624,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Magic48c4,967$2,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.52,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Magic49c4,946$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.4210553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic67c4,935$3,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Pistons50c4,834$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.511,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Magic49c4,800$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.981,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Pistons52c4,669$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,42820945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Magic48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,08013148.1%63 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed Magic49c3,957$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.936243.5%27 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Magic49c3,957$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.9321142.7%90 W · 121 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Magic49c3,878$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.5879549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe226…95a5backed Pistons52c3,763$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.579853.1%52 W · 46 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Pistons19c3,704$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.1185742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic48c3,429$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.743,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2972…3f29backed Pistons52c3,391$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,763.13941%16 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pistons50c3,222$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61150346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Pistons50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Magic48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.9815850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Magic48c3,000$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.9757950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Pistons51c2,956$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.0320946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic48c2,916$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.322,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Pistons53c2,915$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.1612251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d2b…97fdbacked Pistons51c2,854$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.326543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa686…5b61backed Pistons52c2,802$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.82544%11 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Pistons52c2,572$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.327455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Magic58c2,570$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.911,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Pistons51c2,549$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.3144740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Magic49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27556843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Magic48c2,500$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.9948054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Pistons52c2,428$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.568953.9%48 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Magic48c2,400$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.841,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0daa…c9dabacked Pistons43c2,397$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.262060%12 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Magic49c2,382$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.8721152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Magic49c2,100$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08156043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e11…6a5abacked Pistons4c2,052$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Magic49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.864944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Magic47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…76babacked Pistons51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0201353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe458…7abebacked Magic49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Pistons33c1,996$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.7520744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Pistons51c1,995$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.363953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Pistons51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.012259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Magic49c1,953$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.7820154.2%109 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6975…11c1backed Pistons52c1,942$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.053246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Magic50c1,940$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Magic49c1,884$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.910256.9%58 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x031a…50b7backed Pistons52c1,868$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.29357%53 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Pistons52c1,868$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.211249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623b…8facbacked Pistons52c1,826$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.452347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Magic59c1,763$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.742,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e3…22cbbacked Magic49c1,699$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.432653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Magic49c1,648$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.477156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6733…acb9backed Magic49c1,623$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.627856.4%44 W · 34 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.