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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,785 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic45c6,695$3,003 inWon+$3,691.911,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Pistons56c5,077$2,843 inLost-$2,843.35253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked Pistons57c427.28$244 inLost-$243.551553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Pistons54c380.7$204 inLost-$203.681,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Pistons53c337.65$178 inLost-$178.0220638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb86d…3c53backed Pistons54c187.84$101 inLost-$101.4347134.2%161 W · 310 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb0f7…aebbbacked Pistons57c170.91$97 inLost-$97.422560%15 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic50c116.4$58 inWon+$58.23,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfe…9408backed Pistons50c100$50 inLost-$505637.5%21 W · 35 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Pistons55c99.99$55 inLost-$5531947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeefb…d11fbacked Magic45c94.54$43 inWon+$524353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45ec…12eebacked Magic49c60.62$30 inWon+$30.659153.8%49 W · 42 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Magic49c54.89$27 inWon+$27.852,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Pistons48c51.43$25 inLost-$24.6940750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Pistons51c50$26 inLost-$25.51,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf2…8bf0backed Pistons56c34.77$19 inLost-$19.475947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6ebacked Pistons68c28.85$20 inLost-$19.628048.8%39 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6844…0ccfbacked Magic52c28.02$15 inWon+$13.453545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6733…acb9backed Magic49c24.63$12 inWon+$12.597856.4%44 W · 34 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Pistons52c23.93$12 inLost-$12.4389850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…9805backed Pistons55c23.35$13 inLost-$12.8422942.8%98 W · 131 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Pistons50c20$10 inLost-$103372.7%24 W · 9 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Pistons57c19.98$11 inLost-$11.398235.4%29 W · 53 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.