NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9cc8e7412014b9c85370653a8786347e8a76d1278b92ccc84066c13478b5ab5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Magic | 50c | 3,012$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.93 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Magic | 54c | 2,836$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.5 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pistons | 41c | 1,887$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.06 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons | 46c | 1,726$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.59 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd710…cf6fbacked Pistons | 50c | 1,520$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.1 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Pistons | 53c | 979.68$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.34 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Pistons | 46c | 963.01$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.99 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Magic | 56c | 670.61$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.21 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef9…5e27backed Pistons | 48c | 583.66$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Magic | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…dcb1backed Pistons | 53c | 388.7$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.71 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pistons | 50c | 384.12$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2569…5d2dbacked Magic | 55c | 353.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Pistons | 4c | 353.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic | 49c | 302.19$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.19 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Magic | 56c | 296.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.63 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Magic | 46c | 248.5$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 320 | 45.3%145 W · 175 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…ac70backed Pistons | 49c | 178.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…e5acbacked Pistons | 49c | 172$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 200 | 55.5%111 W · 89 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Magic | 63c | 154.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe552…7f99backed Magic | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Pistons | 51c | 132.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -12.5wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…0d62backed Pistons | 47c | 112.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Magic | 60c | 105.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Magic | 61c | 103.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Magic | 46c | 101.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Magic | 51c | 83.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Magic | 59c | 83.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Magic | 59c | 83.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Magic | 61c | 80.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Magic | 60c | 80.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Magic | 73c | 76.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic | 65c | 67.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Pistons | 30c | 47.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Magic | 56c | 45.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Magic | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Magic | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Pistons | 51c | 39.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Pistons | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Pistons | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Magic | 50c | 29.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +13.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…3528backed Magic | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…7558backed Pistons | 47c | 28.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…be50backed Pistons | 48c | 28.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…514cbacked Pistons | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Magic | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Pistons | 53c | 25.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Pistons | 53c | 24.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 176 | 60.8%107 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Pistons | 44c | 23.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Magic | 53c | 22.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Magic | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Magic | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Magic | 52c | 19.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Magic | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Magic won
- Ausar Thompson: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Magic vs. PistonsMagic won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.