TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 112.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,333
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,333 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Under54c6,219$3,367 inWon+$2,851.8816846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over46c3,349$1,537 inLost-$1,537.125,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over50c2,000$1,000 inLost-$1,00050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over46c1,522$700 inLost-$700.122,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Under50c1,302$651 inWon+$650.8720744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over45c1,050$474 inLost-$4742,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Under49c892.1$441 inWon+$450.93948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Over51c548.53$280 inLost-$279.759447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a8…1f1ebacked Under43c450.3$193 inWon+$257.163053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over46c426.59$197 inLost-$197.2131345.7%143 W · 170 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over21c294.34$62 inLost-$61.811,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Under50c193.06$97 inWon+$96.0437848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…a295backed Under50c172.66$86 inWon+$86.3311261.6%69 W · 43 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under43c144.9$63 inWon+$82.053,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Under29c123$36 inWon+$87.380440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over57c117.86$67 inLost-$67.1818844.7%84 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over58c103.58$60 inLost-$60.1437665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under44c101.36$45 inWon+$56.7962047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over50c100$50 inLost-$5095548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over50c96.97$48 inLost-$481,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over54c77.8$42 inLost-$42.111,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Over66c76.79$51 inLost-$50.6818444.6%82 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under28c74.72$21 inWon+$53.9478639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under52c60.08$31 inWon+$28.9745445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4d…0486backed Under72c55.06$40 inWon+$15.367646.1%35 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x756e…fe0fbacked Under50c50$25 inWon+$252642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5258…534ebacked Under42c50$21 inWon+$291060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under49c49.44$24 inWon+$25.21,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddf2…8bf0backed Under50c38.8$19 inWon+$19.45947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Over51c38.06$19 inLost-$19.416241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69ad…365abacked Over53c35.68$19 inLost-$18.913148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Over51c27.73$14 inLost-$14.1421849.5%108 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Over54c27.55$15 inLost-$14.8821046.2%97 W · 113 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over48c24.92$12 inLost-$11.9637753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e1…65a4backed Over54c21$11 inLost-$11.344755.3%26 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over51c20.83$11 inLost-$10.687049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.