TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,347
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,347 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x483d…65f2backed Yes46c1,010$464 inLost-$464.12425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-68%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked No54c785.54$424 inWon+$361.3517151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Yes46c313.41$145 inLost-$145.1713852.2%72 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No54c251.17$136 inWon+$115.091,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No54c249.99$135 inWon+$1152,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4980…57febacked Yes45c215.38$96 inLost-$96.210245.1%46 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Yes42c127.78$53 inLost-$53.1995049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No54c108.04$58 inWon+$49.740546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…6fe4backed No58c80.59$47 inWon+$33.85955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed No56c75$42 inWon+$339239.1%36 W · 56 L-10.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4504…e61cbacked No58c67.35$39 inWon+$28.36825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8390…3773backed No54c65.31$35 inWon+$30.044553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No56c43.31$24 inWon+$18.9666046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c7c…ea1bbacked Yes46c42.07$19 inLost-$19.351442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd210…92dfbacked Yes46c38.7$18 inLost-$17.821646.3%100 W · 116 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked No58c33.61$19 inWon+$14.1222756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…aae2backed No58c25.21$15 inWon+$10.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+67.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No55c20$11 inWon+$996956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.