TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,335
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,335 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Pistons47c10,134$4,780 inLost-$4,780.395,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Magic53c7,823$4,144 inWon+$3,678.8512056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Magic52c6,778$3,524 inWon+$3,253.2332846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic50c6,591$3,295 inWon+$3,295.431,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Pistons50c5,820$2,910 inLost-$2,91016846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Pistons48c1,558$748 inLost-$747.688153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pistons48c1,555$739 inLost-$738.942,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bf…6df9backed Pistons34c1,440$485 inLost-$485.476261.3%38 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Pistons48c994.95$478 inLost-$477.572,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed Magic54c902.11$486 inWon+$415.945561.8%34 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Pistons47c614.01$290 inLost-$290.4314052.1%73 W · 67 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Pistons50c388.11$194 inLost-$19436248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x675c…4341backed Pistons50c388$194 inLost-$1944348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…5a74backed Magic52c299.98$156 inWon+$143.997554.7%41 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed Pistons48c201.83$97 inLost-$96.884946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Pistons48c200$96 inLost-$96.0787049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Pistons12c162.61$19 inLost-$18.9962047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Pistons18c156$28 inLost-$28.3478639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Pistons48c138.88$67 inLost-$67.3326545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Pistons46c138.22$64 inLost-$63.5813047.7%62 W · 68 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Magic50c104.7$52 inWon+$52.371,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d3…e454backed Pistons46c100$46 inLost-$4650%0 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Pistons17c91$15 inLost-$15.4731238.5%120 W · 192 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc57f…cfffbacked Magic55c61.64$34 inWon+$27.741070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Pistons23c55.02$13 inLost-$12.9131345.7%143 W · 170 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Magic52c53.29$28 inWon+$25.5819357.5%111 W · 82 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Pistons25c46$12 inLost-$11.51,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Pistons46c42.07$19 inLost-$19.3514844.6%66 W · 82 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4a1…3a92backed Pistons48c40.37$19 inLost-$19.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x202f…7b58backed Pistons46c35.69$16 inLost-$16.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+70%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Magic54c32.32$17 inWon+$14.8724841.9%104 W · 144 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x108b…ecdabacked Magic52c30.22$16 inWon+$14.512740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Pistons45c30$14 inLost-$13.537753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Pistons45c22.23$10 inLost-$101,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Pistons47c21.86$10 inLost-$10.3729449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.