Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0898646d7223f6519561419525d5cdda3fe31935a7565210526ada5c6bcd67d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 12c | 1,241$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 852.99$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.39 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 2c | 836.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 816.24$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.2 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 8c | 706.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 525 | 38.9%204 W · 321 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 8c | 706.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 37c | 544.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 541.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 23c | 522.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 491.23$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 2c | 451.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed No | 70c | 400$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 357.84$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 1,146 | 30.9%354 W · 792 L | -37.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 33c | 309.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 483 | 39.5%191 W · 292 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 33c | 298.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 277.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 37c | 276.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 249.21$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 34c | 234$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 33c | 228.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 899 | 29%261 W · 638 L | -22.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 8c | 220.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 22c | 219.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 214$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…f6b6backed Yes | 7c | 212.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 206.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 37c | 190.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 299 | 36.5%109 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 8c | 190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 423 | 53%224 W · 199 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 53c | 169.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 6c | 169.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 386 | 70.2%271 W · 115 L | +64.1wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 164.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 880 | 59.4%523 W · 357 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 13c | 146.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 69c | 143.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 138.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 931 | 44.9%418 W · 513 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 41c | 131.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 128.82$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 123.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 37c | 120.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 235 | 31.1%73 W · 162 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 41c | 119.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 185 | 33%61 W · 124 L | -18.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…bb91backed Yes | 57c | 114.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 113.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 54c | 112.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 111.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed No | 79c | 111.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 197 | 20.3%40 W · 157 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 99.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 34c | 98.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 231 | 64.5%149 W · 82 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 22c | 97.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 204 | 11.8%24 W · 180 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 90.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 90.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 65c | 89.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 471 | 58.8%277 W · 194 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 89.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 86.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 81.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 785 | 57.8%454 W · 331 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 33c | 76.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 35c | 75.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 71.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 64c | 71.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 71.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 70.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 33c | 69.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 67.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 35c | 67.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 251 | 43.8%110 W · 141 L | +26.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 642 | 76.6%492 W · 150 L | +98.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 35c | 62.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 888 | 55.7%495 W · 393 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 33c | 62.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 69c | 62.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 61.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,186 | 50.8%603 W · 583 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e24…eea6backed Yes | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…ca7abacked Yes | 30c | 51.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 50.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 418 | 29.9%125 W · 293 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 47.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 35c | 46.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 43c | 46.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 23c | 45.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a2…07a4backed Yes | 44c | 45.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 31c | 44.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 46c | 43.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 40c | 42.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 35c | 42.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 35c | 42.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 41.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 32c | 40.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 69c | 40.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 455 | 66.2%301 W · 154 L | +20.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 41°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.