Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb024a7f38a3da5244fd5df6d766b0d49a02677949ef685e2ebd75a649a104334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb670…7f04backed No | 79c | 3,820$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 1,363$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.09 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 49c | 1,263$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.55 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 1,262$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.83 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +581.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 1,137$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.53 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 999.81$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 70c | 948.37$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 37c | 854.93$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.92 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 71c | 701.35$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.06 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 5c | 699.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 689.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 516.5$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 43c | 513.58$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.06 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 67c | 507.18$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.22 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 31c | 505.96$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.06 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 492.47$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.86 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 465.95$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 48c | 446.81$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.39 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 37c | 410.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 44c | 392.08$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.07 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 18c | 357$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 356.84$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 37c | 286.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 274.34$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 258.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.37 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 256.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 255.22$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 245$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 61c | 242.93$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 38c | 234.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 42c | 199.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 43c | 199.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 54c | 196$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 193.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 56c | 177.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…ca7abacked Yes | 38c | 163.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 162.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 155.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 54c | 148$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 57c | 147$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed No | 30c | 143.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 141.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 140.68$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 73c | 137.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 134.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 41c | 131.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 12c | 131.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 64c | 126.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 49c | 121.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 118.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 42c | 118.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 37c | 116$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 113$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 45c | 111.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 55c | 105.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 103.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 102.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…0002backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 99.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 39c | 96.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 94.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 65c | 90.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 86.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 85.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 83.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 58c | 82.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 65c | 81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 38c | 79.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 63c | 79.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…943ebacked Yes | 43c | 74.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 73.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 73.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 40c | 72.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 72.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 61c | 68.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 49c | 68.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 68.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 73c | 68.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 45c | 66.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 55c | 64.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 61c | 63.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 64c | 62.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 73c | 61.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 61.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 56c | 61.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 46c | 61.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 52.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 34c | 51.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e24…eea6backed Yes | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 50.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 41°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.