TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celine Naefof Celine Naef, Maddison Inglis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,207
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,207 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Maddison Inglis4c19,619$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.89,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Celine Naef73c12,656$9,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,422.2594140.6%382 W · 559 L-31.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Celine Naef63c8,685$5,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,246.0456757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82a…a759backed Maddison Inglis37c6,116$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.1733955.2%187 W · 152 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a86…b39ebacked Maddison Inglis34c5,936$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc233…0561backed Maddison Inglis39c5,156$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Celine Naef66c3,962$2,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.363,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Maddison Inglis31c3,279$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.0395140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Maddison Inglis35c2,763$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.212,52138.4%969 W · 1,552 L+93.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Maddison Inglis31c2,742$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.991,88344.8%843 W · 1,040 L+36.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Maddison Inglis2c2,242$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8211,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Maddison Inglis31c1,774$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.991,88145.7%860 W · 1,021 L+51.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Celine Naef66c1,683$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.239751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Celine Naef70c1,420$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4262962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Maddison Inglis30c1,330$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.933438.6%129 W · 205 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Celine Naef64c1,300$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47243042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…df4bbacked Celine Naef68c1,100$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35214657.5%84 W · 62 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Celine Naef67c1,070$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.138144.6%170 W · 211 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Celine Naef70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3007139.4%28 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Maddison Inglis33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd443…c069backed Celine Naef66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Maddison Inglis2c890.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.272,88739.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L-84.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Maddison Inglis27c818.68$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4624329.6%72 W · 171 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Maddison Inglis37c792.29$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.2357842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Maddison Inglis14c706.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9542125.7%108 W · 313 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Celine Naef63c704.12$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.4458745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Maddison Inglis32c567.97$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.516047.5%76 W · 84 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Maddison Inglis39c555.54$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.661,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd5…ce89backed Celine Naef68c515.86$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.551952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Maddison Inglis2c510$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.331936.4%116 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11b8…4a42backed Celine Naef63c485.34$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.581428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Celine Naef66c474.95$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.088,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Maddison Inglis35c429.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.56541.5%27 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7906…be5dbacked Celine Naef60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1609058.9%53 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Celine Naef66c398.43$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.922,09944.5%935 W · 1,164 L-51.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Maddison Inglis4c368$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.884,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Maddison Inglis37c320.6$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.893,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Celine Naef66c317.64$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.042,27542.7%972 W · 1,303 L+33.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Celine Naef65c303.02$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.061,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Maddison Inglis35c277.67$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.631,48932.6%486 W · 1,003 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Maddison Inglis31c224.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6385637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Maddison Inglis36c222.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Maddison Inglis15c216$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.475912.1%92 W · 667 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Maddison Inglis14c202.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.375,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Celine Naef67c182.15$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.447854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05c5…8181backed Celine Naef65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8583056.1%466 W · 364 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Celine Naef68c147.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.067,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Maddison Inglis12c129.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2338246.1%176 W · 206 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Celine Naef62c118$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8445744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf59b…7ab0backed Maddison Inglis23c108.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.673737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc110…9a30backed Celine Naef61c101.8$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.712846.1%59 W · 69 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65eb…2c83backed Celine Naef61c101.21$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.474252.4%22 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Maddison Inglis10c100.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.282,06946.7%966 W · 1,103 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe46c…8526backed Maddison Inglis13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Maddison Inglis30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.486647.9%415 W · 451 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Celine Naef63c88.89$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8970456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f57…6359backed Celine Naef62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.651050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Celine Naef63c80.46$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7729237.7%110 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked Celine Naef63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.376459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x055f…b363backed Celine Naef65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.922263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Maddison Inglis38c76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8855641.2%229 W · 327 L-2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Maddison Inglis38c76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8843242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…0044backed Maddison Inglis39c75.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Celine Naef64c70.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.521,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Maddison Inglis38c70.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.611,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Maddison Inglis36c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.222953.3%122 W · 107 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x626d…e570backed Maddison Inglis37c69.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9952135.1%183 W · 338 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ea…42e8backed Celine Naef71c63.2$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3890459.5%538 W · 366 L+0.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Celine Naef63c62.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.251,02257.8%591 W · 431 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Maddison Inglis32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030436.8%112 W · 192 L-19.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bf7…8b4bbacked Maddison Inglis38c55.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Maddison Inglis31c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1792138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Maddison Inglis29c52.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.296464.1%41 W · 23 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e6b…4e62backed Maddison Inglis38c52.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Celine Naef69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.53,98745.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Celine Naef69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51,12551.1%575 W · 550 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Celine Naef71c49.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.367,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Celine Naef66c49.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671,26944.8%568 W · 701 L-5.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5e…f0c5backed Celine Naef63c48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.723272.8%169 W · 63 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0813…41e1backed Celine Naef63c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3937158.8%218 W · 153 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x628d…a02cbacked Maddison Inglis35c45.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Celine Naef71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2588560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf676…9a00backed Celine Naef72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6720158.7%118 W · 83 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…902abacked Celine Naef62c40.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d6…e50ebacked Maddison Inglis36c40.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.461136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0654…f5a9backed Celine Naef63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.85766.7%38 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8326…a5dabacked Celine Naef63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6936…8f48backed Celine Naef64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.063339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Celine Naef65c36.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6522153.4%118 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…2b32backed Celine Naef66c36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.242373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e08…3ca0backed Celine Naef62c35.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c1…125ebacked Celine Naef63c34.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.891233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Celine Naef63c30.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1647447.9%227 W · 247 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Celine Naef73c30.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Maddison Inglis36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.882055%451 W · 369 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1713…dd76backed Celine Naef63c28.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d75…26fbbacked Celine Naef70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5716358.9%96 W · 67 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Celine Naef73c27.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.52,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469f…eb98backed Celine Naef66c27.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Celine Naef66c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.559954.9%329 W · 270 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.