Tennis · resolved market
Sion: Michael Zhu vs Thiago Cigarran
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e552a2b750d0114d8b65e405976f694c6670af3561a2810cd28d73d89b58564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thiago Cigarranof Michael Zhu, Thiago Cigarran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6982…a165backed Thiago Cigarran | 43c | 17,736$7,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,101.47 | 629 | 56.9%358 W · 271 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Thiago Cigarran | 67c | 17,024$11,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,635.97 | 361 | 45.2%163 W · 198 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0807backed Michael Zhu | 28c | 13,050$3,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,654 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Michael Zhu | 40c | 12,247$4,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,959.55 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Michael Zhu | 47c | 9,795$4,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,563.43 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5455…8b2abacked Michael Zhu | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…a8a1backed Michael Zhu | 47c | 3,036$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Thiago Cigarran | 67c | 3,021$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.63 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 41c | 2,440$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.6 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Thiago Cigarran | 79c | 2,126$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.72 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Thiago Cigarran | 61c | 1,817$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.35 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf764…61e6backed Michael Zhu | 49c | 1,622$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.99 | 237 | 23.6%56 W · 181 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Michael Zhu | 36c | 1,300$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 326 | 37.4%122 W · 204 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Thiago Cigarran | 65c | 1,157$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.51 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Michael Zhu | 36c | 787.31$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.17 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Michael Zhu | 28c | 690.43$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Thiago Cigarran | 58c | 652.28$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.61 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…4b40backed Michael Zhu | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 306 | 25.8%79 W · 227 L | -28.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Michael Zhu | 61c | 542.91$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.85 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Thiago Cigarran | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Michael Zhu | 47c | 486$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.42 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Thiago Cigarran | 71c | 383.08$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Thiago Cigarran | 34c | 363.84$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.15 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Michael Zhu | 44c | 346.32$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…e5e6backed Thiago Cigarran | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Michael Zhu | 71c | 302.53$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.75 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…3d80backed Michael Zhu | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 39.6%57 W · 87 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Thiago Cigarran | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…fbb3backed Michael Zhu | 40c | 220.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…5850backed Thiago Cigarran | 38c | 205.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Michael Zhu | 50c | 185.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Michael Zhu | 30c | 179.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Michael Zhu | 31c | 173.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Michael Zhu | 31c | 156.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Michael Zhu | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 39.7%83 W · 126 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Thiago Cigarran | 37c | 139.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…2f66backed Michael Zhu | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 216 | 61.1%132 W · 84 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Michael Zhu | 53c | 135.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Michael Zhu | 34c | 133.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d0…2a3abacked Michael Zhu | 49c | 129.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 164 | 37.8%62 W · 102 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Michael Zhu | 33c | 128.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Michael Zhu | 47c | 121.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…3860backed Thiago Cigarran | 37c | 121.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 242 | 31%75 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Michael Zhu | 46c | 112.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 427 | 48.7%208 W · 219 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…4968backed Thiago Cigarran | 58c | 109.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Michael Zhu | 34c | 108.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Thiago Cigarran | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Michael Zhu | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Thiago Cigarran | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Thiago Cigarran | 54c | 99.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Michael Zhu | 28c | 98.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe66…285cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 42c | 90.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Michael Zhu | 20c | 88.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Michael Zhu | 25c | 82.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Michael Zhu | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Michael Zhu | 36c | 67.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Michael Zhu | 25c | 64.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Michael Zhu | 31c | 62.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Thiago Cigarran | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…7f44backed Michael Zhu | 70c | 55.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Michael Zhu | 64c | 53.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 205 | 63.4%130 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Thiago Cigarran | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 165 | 88.5%146 W · 19 L | +37.7wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…d67fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Michael Zhu | 61c | 47.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Michael Zhu | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Thiago Cigarran | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 200 | 39%78 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 44c | 36.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…57adbacked Thiago Cigarran | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Thiago Cigarran | 75c | 33.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed Thiago Cigarran | 79c | 29.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 447 | 58.8%263 W · 184 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Michael Zhu | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Thiago Cigarran | 75c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 425 | 63.3%269 W · 156 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Thiago Cigarran | 53c | 25.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed53…456cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 68c | 23.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Michael Zhu | 77c | 20.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Thiago Cigarran | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Thiago Cigarran | 75c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.