TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Sion: Michael Zhu vs Thiago Cigarran

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thiago Cigarranof Michael Zhu, Thiago Cigarran
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6982…a165backed Thiago Cigarran43c17,736$7,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,101.4762956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Thiago Cigarran67c17,024$11,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,635.9736145.2%163 W · 198 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6129…0807backed Michael Zhu28c13,050$3,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6544254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Michael Zhu40c12,247$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959.558,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Michael Zhu47c9,795$4,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,563.436,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5455…8b2abacked Michael Zhu32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60013239.4%52 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e1…a8a1backed Michael Zhu47c3,036$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.031163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thiago Cigarran67c3,021$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.6311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…986cbacked Thiago Cigarran41c2,440$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.663648%305 W · 331 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Thiago Cigarran79c2,126$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.725,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Thiago Cigarran61c1,817$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.353,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf764…61e6backed Michael Zhu49c1,622$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.9923723.6%56 W · 181 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Michael Zhu36c1,300$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46832637.4%122 W · 204 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Thiago Cigarran65c1,157$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.518,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Michael Zhu36c787.31$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.179,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Michael Zhu28c690.43$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3222056.4%124 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Thiago Cigarran58c652.28$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.6188358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Michael Zhu34c588.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030625.8%79 W · 227 L-28.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Michael Zhu61c542.91$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.854,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Thiago Cigarran41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.888935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Michael Zhu47c486$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.4224052.5%126 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Thiago Cigarran71c383.08$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.591,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Thiago Cigarran34c363.84$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.154,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Michael Zhu44c346.32$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.381,30838.9%509 W · 799 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf65e…e5e6backed Thiago Cigarran33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.036160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Michael Zhu71c302.53$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.756,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb624…3d80backed Michael Zhu35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014439.6%57 W · 87 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Thiago Cigarran44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2716856%94 W · 74 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5056…fbb3backed Michael Zhu40c220.13$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.057136.6%26 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadeb…5850backed Thiago Cigarran38c205.26$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.262030%6 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Michael Zhu50c185.6$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.833,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3459…caa6backed Michael Zhu30c179.6$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5426748.7%130 W · 137 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Michael Zhu31c173.42$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7644138.8%171 W · 270 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Michael Zhu31c156.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8231948.9%156 W · 163 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0e…1cebbacked Michael Zhu32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020939.7%83 W · 126 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Thiago Cigarran37c139.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.572,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbeec…2f66backed Michael Zhu72c138.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021661.1%132 W · 84 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Michael Zhu53c135.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.391,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Michael Zhu34c133.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.543,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d0…2a3abacked Michael Zhu49c129.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0416437.8%62 W · 102 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Michael Zhu33c128.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.641,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f1…f02dbacked Michael Zhu47c121.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.626448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8468…3860backed Thiago Cigarran37c121.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4524231%75 W · 167 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Michael Zhu46c112.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5142748.7%208 W · 219 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d9…4968backed Thiago Cigarran58c109.47$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8512641.3%52 W · 74 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Michael Zhu34c108.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.822,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Thiago Cigarran60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4072147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Michael Zhu78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.56,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Thiago Cigarran38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.161,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Thiago Cigarran54c99.37$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8948947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Michael Zhu28c98.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.636,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe66…285cbacked Thiago Cigarran42c90.6$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.593215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Michael Zhu20c88.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Michael Zhu25c82.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.715,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Michael Zhu57c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.591,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Michael Zhu36c67.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.152,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Michael Zhu25c64.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.182,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Michael Zhu31c62.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5231842.5%135 W · 183 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Thiago Cigarran42c57.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1451942.6%221 W · 298 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…7f44backed Michael Zhu70c55.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a49…737abacked Michael Zhu64c53.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420563.4%130 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cce…4b52backed Thiago Cigarran76c51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2416588.5%146 W · 19 L+37.7wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+33%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xed5d…d67fbacked Thiago Cigarran23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Michael Zhu61c47.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.491,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Michael Zhu37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,02554%554 W · 471 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9183…59f0backed Thiago Cigarran30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.220039%78 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Thiago Cigarran44c36.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8144729.3%131 W · 316 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…57adbacked Thiago Cigarran57c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1213652.2%71 W · 65 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Thiago Cigarran75c33.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.291,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Thiago Cigarran79c29.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1744758.8%263 W · 184 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Michael Zhu38c26.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.174,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b56…a082backed Thiago Cigarran75c26.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5642563.3%269 W · 156 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Thiago Cigarran53c25.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.862,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed53…456cbacked Thiago Cigarran68c23.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.473345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Michael Zhu77c20.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.871,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcac7…37d8backed Thiago Cigarran55c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.555174.5%38 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x071f…92bdbacked Thiago Cigarran75c16.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.121,07673.8%794 W · 282 L+41.1wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.