TailMyPicks
Market

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of Rex Regum Qeon, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked T166c16,910$11,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,775.5829255.8%163 W · 129 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Rex Regum Qeon33c5,646$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.926863.2%43 W · 25 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+34.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Rex Regum Qeon33c2,800$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.6461035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Rex Regum Qeon35c2,585$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.782240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Rex Regum Qeon34c2,350$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79942035%147 W · 273 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed T165c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70017052.4%89 W · 81 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Rex Regum Qeon33c1,544$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.8217353.8%93 W · 80 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed T166c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.8611255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed T166c1,492$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.853060%18 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed T164c1,345$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.9213642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed T169c1,333$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.4525046.4%116 W · 134 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Rex Regum Qeon33c1,325$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.7923447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Rex Regum Qeon29c1,320$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.6722047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked T167c1,214$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.572751.9%14 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae8…c9a3backed Rex Regum Qeon35c1,166$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T166c1,163$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.6833153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Rex Regum Qeon35c1,092$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.454641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed T165c1,052$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.243650%18 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Rex Regum Qeon34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34016639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Rex Regum Qeon26c984.76$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7845033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed T166c979.6$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.0693248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked T167c973.33$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.2631153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked T167c940$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.1324846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb00…8f75backed Rex Regum Qeon39c897.43$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed Rex Regum Qeon34c882.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Rex Regum Qeon13c796.11$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4914645.2%66 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Rex Regum Qeon23c794.68$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.860423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Rex Regum Qeon35c768.8$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.083770.3%26 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Rex Regum Qeon18c700.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.148444%37 W · 47 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Rex Regum Qeon34c698.87$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.6255152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf82…91ccbacked T172c681.9$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.272157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed Rex Regum Qeon33c668.47$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4219134.6%66 W · 125 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed T166c661.54$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.687241.7%30 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Rex Regum Qeon31c660.76$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8415850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1534…5b56backed T175c657.17$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.691747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed T165c651.81$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.1325453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x353e…6b4dbacked Rex Regum Qeon2c638.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.231723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Rex Regum Qeon35c627.53$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.646762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Rex Regum Qeon35c604.06$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.4229733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0caa…b2bdbacked Rex Regum Qeon35c576.2$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4514959.7%89 W · 60 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed T167c533.37$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.719443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Rex Regum Qeon14c528.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8434853.7%187 W · 161 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Rex Regum Qeon32c518.8$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.961,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Rex Regum Qeon38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902060%12 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Rex Regum Qeon35c499.98$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9936648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Rex Regum Qeon33c470$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.818444.6%82 W · 102 L-0.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Rex Regum Qeon34c391.83$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3886747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Rex Regum Qeon35c384.4$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.542646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e00…ba80backed Rex Regum Qeon35c369.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.491361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Rex Regum Qeon34c364$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.763966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Rex Regum Qeon35c349.8$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.434557.8%26 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96bb…f0fabacked T165c346.42$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.252462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed T164c328.2$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9526051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9781…e481backed Rex Regum Qeon14c327.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…b1a2backed Rex Regum Qeon12c316.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked T166c296.85$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9310863%68 W · 40 L+15.4wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Rex Regum Qeon35c293.05$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3134739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab5f…f76ebacked T168c291.19$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.627157.7%41 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa903…bcd2backed T168c286.86$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.652263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Rex Regum Qeon35c280.61$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.211855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbea…e77bbacked T159c279.45$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d43…3f6cbacked T174c276.36$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.229965.7%65 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x233c…c283backed T165c269.96$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+121.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Rex Regum Qeon36c267.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1663056.3%355 W · 275 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Rex Regum Qeon33c263.95$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.112850%64 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Rex Regum Qeon34c229.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.53944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Rex Regum Qeon32c222$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.049737.1%36 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c8…f1e1backed Rex Regum Qeon12c215.59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.55850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+76.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Rex Regum Qeon17c210.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8454542.2%230 W · 315 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked Rex Regum Qeon31c209.75$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.023850%19 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfff4…facdbacked Rex Regum Qeon32c204.55$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.46728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Rex Regum Qeon31c201.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5441537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Rex Regum Qeon35c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7110142.6%43 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed T166c192.53$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1735157.3%201 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Rex Regum Qeon36c181.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3815942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Rex Regum Qeon35c175.86$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.556066.7%40 W · 20 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Rex Regum Qeon29c173.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5426932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Rex Regum Qeon26c171$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.741,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Rex Regum Qeon37c170.83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5343459.2%257 W · 177 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Rex Regum Qeon33c169.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.142540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rex Regum Qeon19c167.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.289344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked T165c165.27$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5718653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked T168c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4833753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Rex Regum Qeon36c149.8$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2226858.6%157 W · 111 L+18.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Rex Regum Qeon23c145.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8215833.5%53 W · 105 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Rex Regum Qeon24c144$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8415334.6%53 W · 100 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Rex Regum Qeon23c144$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.69238%35 W · 57 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed T169c142.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0921257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked T168c140.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1212650.8%64 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Rex Regum Qeon35c140.31$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.113360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Rex Regum Qeon35c137.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.053327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed T164c135.62$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8232047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7894…7b9dbacked Rex Regum Qeon35c129.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.413751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0f…8175backed T169c127.25$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.896453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Rex Regum Qeon36c121.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3317555.4%97 W · 78 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed T165c120.49$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1728541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Rex Regum Qeon35c108.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Rex Regum Qeon35c106.59$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3123732.9%78 W · 159 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3f6…bab8backed Rex Regum Qeon35c105.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Rex Regum Qeon35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.