TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x353e…6b4d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+101%+$21.61
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.04
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.67
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+240%+$59.03
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffsbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.12
Valorant: VARREL vs ZETA DIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked VARREL · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.88
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+208.6%+$32.56
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked Team Secret · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.84
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked Gen.G Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.37
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.05
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omegabacked Rex Regum Qeon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.23
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked Evil Geniuses · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.03
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alphabacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.74
Valorant: Team Secret vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked Team Secret · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.87
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
All 17 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$38.39
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$19.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.