Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fcfc1246653619bd2e0fb2fedcf670ff854f4ed74eb699ea1406f844e214aa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 1,438$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 777.26$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.45 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 659.11$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 641.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 412.41$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.72 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 342.93$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 333.45$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 252.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 249.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 35c | 226.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 209$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 185.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 165.26$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 67c | 162.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 159.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 144$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 130.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 64c | 90.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 86.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7de0backed Yes | 37c | 81.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 35c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 59.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 55.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 38c | 54.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 59c | 46.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 46.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 44.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 34.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 75c | 33.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 32.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 37c | 28.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 35c | 28.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 66c | 27.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 56c | 26.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 26.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 60c | 24.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 24.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 62c | 24.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 21.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3d…bdddbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 65c | 16.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.