Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6030c898032fef46b3d5fd59ed918994625be73c83c6a87520ab056d1b00f888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,377$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 1,339$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 1,039$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 990.79$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 49c | 743.11$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.28 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 731.69$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 49c | 704.58$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.95 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 54c | 683.98$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.79 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 562.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 68c | 500.16$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.64 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 484.74$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 46c | 403$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 350.02$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 51c | 335.04$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.97 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 334.73$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.16 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 288.84$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.43 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 51c | 274.59$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…b28cbacked Yes | 49c | 195.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 181.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 48c | 171.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 170$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c98…7d22backed Yes | 54c | 166.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 16c | 165.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 165.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 49c | 163$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 161.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 46c | 151.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 54c | 141$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 48c | 136.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 135.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 52c | 129.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 49c | 124.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 123$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 67c | 118.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 52c | 111.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 97.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 89.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 48c | 84.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 51c | 81.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 78.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 51c | 75.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 66.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 61.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 60.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 60c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7de0backed No | 53c | 56.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 31c | 53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 58c | 51.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 49c | 51.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 44.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 62c | 44.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 41.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 52c | 41.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 45c | 39.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 50c | 39.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 58c | 38.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 38.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked Yes | 79c | 37.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 31.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 43c | 28.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 28.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 46c | 27.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 41c | 26.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 26.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 47c | 23.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 53c | 22.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 56c | 21.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 52c | 21.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797c…0306backed Yes | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…28f8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.