Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Yemen by October 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10371bb0677074e5245defa4eb6dc6d81bcb5c00071410aabdfefcd5f86d15ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 1c | 13,999$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.57 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 17c | 1,539$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.41 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 72c | 1,418$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.68 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 76c | 930.48$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.02 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 26c | 744.63$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 47c | 600$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.3 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 16c | 562.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 21c | 521.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.58 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 20c | 449.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 11c | 435.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 426.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 392.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 65c | 365.7$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.05 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 39c | 330.82$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.11 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked Yes | 53c | 325.54$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 15c | 316.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 13c | 297.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 38c | 280.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 270.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 31c | 255$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 36c | 239.58$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…06d8backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b1c8backed Yes | 20c | 212.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…be7cbacked No | 48c | 209.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 54cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6874…5a96backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 34c | 182.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 154.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 66c | 152.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 146$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 32c | 80.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…862ebacked Yes | 67c | 73.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 58c | 68.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…2aa6backed No | 48c | 62.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 37c | 59.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 27c | 54.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed No | 49c | 51.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…72c0backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 28c | 44.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed Yes | 41c | 33.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0763…1fb4backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…a41abacked No | 80c | 29.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 41c | 27.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 78c | 16.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8047…8c58backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.