TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Daniil Medvedevof Marin Cilic, Daniil Medvedev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,336
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,336 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6485…a265backed Marin Cilic25c5,882$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.492,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4a8…246dbacked Marin Cilic9c5,600$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Marin Cilic29c4,666$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.1316825%42 W · 126 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Marin Cilic9c3,947$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.2220146.8%94 W · 107 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Marin Cilic28c3,500$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.9931736.9%117 W · 200 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Daniil Medvedev72c3,472$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.2244163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Daniil Medvedev71c3,350$2,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.57969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Daniil Medvedev75c3,316$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.644,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Marin Cilic2c2,258$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.169760.8%59 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Marin Cilic28c2,246$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.985,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x072f…ffddbacked Marin Cilic3c2,184$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.527143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Marin Cilic28c2,161$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.463,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Marin Cilic18c2,055$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.93,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked Daniil Medvedev71c1,987$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.313050%15 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Marin Cilic27c1,800$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4861,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Marin Cilic3c1,625$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.942,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbae…9a39backed Marin Cilic18c1,500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2651020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Marin Cilic5c1,408$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.44,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed Daniil Medvedev71c1,360$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.364560%27 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Daniil Medvedev77c1,302$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.4894068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Daniil Medvedev75c1,301$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.351,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x902f…5eb6backed Marin Cilic29c1,034$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Marin Cilic3c970.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.042,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Marin Cilic29c691.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.482,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Daniil Medvedev74c671.15$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.1518159.7%108 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Marin Cilic8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017829.2%52 W · 126 L+0.7wins0.00per pick29cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Marin Cilic2c603.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6726355.1%145 W · 118 L+36.9wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+25.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd6e4…68bebacked Marin Cilic14c591.41$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.813636.8%50 W · 86 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Marin Cilic15c583.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.761,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4b…c865backed Daniil Medvedev72c523.74$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7421651.4%111 W · 105 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Marin Cilic28c506.28$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.363537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Daniil Medvedev71c503.44$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.894,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Daniil Medvedev75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12523152.4%121 W · 110 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0243…b5a5backed Marin Cilic4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.161625%4 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4702…5d04backed Marin Cilic27c459.37$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.038937.1%33 W · 56 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked Daniil Medvedev72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6752661.2%322 W · 204 L+1.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef4…dbcdbacked Daniil Medvedev73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.961457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Daniil Medvedev80c375.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.587660.5%46 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bfe…4a26backed Daniil Medvedev72c342.96$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.032860.7%17 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Marin Cilic6c310$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.78334.9%29 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…a806backed Marin Cilic15c309$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.111336.3%41 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Daniil Medvedev71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8718256.6%103 W · 79 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Daniil Medvedev72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844751.1%24 W · 23 L-6.2wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Daniil Medvedev72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847374%54 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Marin Cilic9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551849.4%256 W · 262 L-1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a1…ceb5backed Daniil Medvedev72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.788234.1%28 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x411e…72f0backed Daniil Medvedev72c271$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2115762.4%98 W · 59 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked Daniil Medvedev72c269.28$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.428756.1%161 W · 126 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Marin Cilic29c249.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.541644.5%185 W · 231 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Marin Cilic9c239.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2166834.3%229 W · 439 L-43.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Daniil Medvedev71c225$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.251,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb347…5166backed Daniil Medvedev72c198.29$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5221955.3%121 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Marin Cilic28c194.46$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4592237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Marin Cilic12c190.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.729520%19 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Marin Cilic28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x285f…0f08backed Marin Cilic9c170$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4918537.3%69 W · 116 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad5…ccdebacked Marin Cilic30c144.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.455032.7%180 W · 370 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90cb…4622backed Daniil Medvedev71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.859750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Daniil Medvedev72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.894751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Daniil Medvedev72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8965652.1%342 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3c…c98cbacked Daniil Medvedev72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.894261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Marin Cilic29c136.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.491,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5e…b4afbacked Daniil Medvedev74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.145367.9%36 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Marin Cilic29c133.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.671,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Daniil Medvedev76c130.17$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2419152.4%100 W · 91 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17eb…8db2backed Marin Cilic8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102810.7%3 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Marin Cilic29c119.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.791,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…02bbbacked Daniil Medvedev72c119.63$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Daniil Medvedev70c117.53$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.261,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Daniil Medvedev72c111.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.111,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Marin Cilic18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3720850%104 W · 104 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Daniil Medvedev71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Daniil Medvedev71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Daniil Medvedev71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2919452.1%101 W · 93 L-13.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7690…dfcebacked Marin Cilic30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3034637.9%131 W · 215 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Marin Cilic12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1234650.6%175 W · 171 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Marin Cilic18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9743250.5%218 W · 214 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Daniil Medvedev71c97$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1373748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked Daniil Medvedev77c96.73$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.259961.6%61 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Marin Cilic30c96.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c5…c8c1backed Marin Cilic28c89.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0139055.6%217 W · 173 L+0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe474…0200backed Marin Cilic30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Daniil Medvedev72c83.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3385348.9%417 W · 436 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Daniil Medvedev73c79.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5147251.3%242 W · 230 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Daniil Medvedev70c78.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6996755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e6f…f8e8backed Daniil Medvedev71c72.28$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.962962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Daniil Medvedev70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4396049.5%475 W · 485 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Marin Cilic29c69.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2548245.6%220 W · 262 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Daniil Medvedev72c68.61$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.214247.6%20 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Marin Cilic30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014243%61 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae28…8883backed Daniil Medvedev72c66.66$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.661154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Marin Cilic29c65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8567848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Marin Cilic28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.583447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78a…61c4backed Daniil Medvedev69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.615364.1%98 W · 55 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427c…4eb9backed Marin Cilic29c56.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.376833.8%23 W · 45 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3f4…a47fbacked Daniil Medvedev72c56.83$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.916068.3%41 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x877c…e669backed Daniil Medvedev71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.522963.3%145 W · 84 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c8…e4f7backed Daniil Medvedev71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.513554.8%74 W · 61 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4a4…3c66backed Daniil Medvedev71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.59569.5%66 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x660c…7f7abacked Daniil Medvedev72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1413449.3%66 W · 68 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.