Tennis · resolved market
Will Frances Tiafoe Win the Cincinnati Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11da1f30b73093fd489e732bc91d2fd2e15c66112e18d5db2196329e0994d2e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 10c | 3,072$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.79 | 88 | 28.4%25 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…7f32backed Yes | 18c | 577.62$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 27c | 558.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 483 | 44.5%215 W · 268 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…ca5dbacked Yes | 31c | 520$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed No | 76c | 509.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…46c6backed Yes | 12c | 434.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…d8a3backed No | 73c | 331.69$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…7991backed No | 75c | 225$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 69c | 172.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b5…1bd4backed Yes | 37c | 163.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 175 | 45.1%79 W · 96 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 71c | 118$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 78.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 70c | 58.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…d092backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 25c | 48.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 38.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 68c | 19.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…30f7backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 78c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frances Tiafoe Win the Cincinnati Open?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Alexander Zverev Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Arthur Fils Win the Cincinnati Open?Yes won
- Will Ben Shelton Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Brandon Nakashima Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Flavio Cobolli Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Jakub Mensik Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Joao Fonseca Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Rafael Jodar Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Thiago Agustin Tirante Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul Win the Cincinnati Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.