CS2 · resolved market
BLAST Bounty: ECSTATIC vs. Liquid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1240b259556940275e950e5f7fd8000edd6728d38483238c36e7edc1ada5143b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liquidof ECSTATIC, Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…7dd7backed ECSTATIC | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed ECSTATIC | 1c | 9,426$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed ECSTATIC | 42c | 5,979$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.54 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…ffaabacked ECSTATIC | 19c | 5,263$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Liquid | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Liquid | 60c | 4,558$2,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.83 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed ECSTATIC | 33c | 3,964$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.71 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Liquid | 66c | 3,198$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.38 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked ECSTATIC | 39c | 3,127$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.63 | 1,619 | 45.5%737 W · 882 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed ECSTATIC | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 303 | 40.3%122 W · 181 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed ECSTATIC | 34c | 2,198$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.38 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed ECSTATIC | 39c | 1,939$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.76 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Liquid | 63c | 1,830$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.78 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked ECSTATIC | 28c | 1,554$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.68 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…16e1backed ECSTATIC | 2c | 1,057$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked ECSTATIC | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed ECSTATIC | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Liquid | 61c | 979.17$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.17 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed ECSTATIC | 41c | 975.61$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked ECSTATIC | 38c | 877.79$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.56 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed ECSTATIC | 3c | 750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 646 | 52.8%341 W · 305 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Liquid | 66c | 610.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1c…84e9backed ECSTATIC | 57c | 504.75$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed ECSTATIC | 19c | 499.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 448 | 48.4%217 W · 231 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed ECSTATIC | 35c | 470$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Liquid | 60c | 456.5$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.4 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Liquid | 63c | 455.6$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.77 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed ECSTATIC | 36c | 442.44$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.28 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed ECSTATIC | 35c | 410$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed ECSTATIC | 15c | 400.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 233 | 51.5%120 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed ECSTATIC | 16c | 350$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Liquid | 72c | 348.37$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed ECSTATIC | 3c | 345$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Liquid | 64c | 311.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed ECSTATIC | 39c | 310.38$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f5…32aebacked Liquid | 66c | 303.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Liquid | 49c | 280$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.98 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed ECSTATIC | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 422 | 57.3%242 W · 180 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Liquid | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked ECSTATIC | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed ECSTATIC | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed ECSTATIC | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Liquid | 61c | 193.44$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed ECSTATIC | 18c | 183.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Liquid | 60c | 166.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed ECSTATIC | 33c | 160.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed ECSTATIC | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 634 | 45.3%287 W · 347 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ECSTATIC | 34c | 139.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed ECSTATIC | 36c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 187 | 24.1%45 W · 142 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Liquid | 62c | 117.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked ECSTATIC | 43c | 113.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ac…f7d3backed Liquid | 62c | 105.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed ECSTATIC | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Liquid | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed Liquid | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…4578backed Liquid | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked ECSTATIC | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Liquid | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…7fb6backed Liquid | 62c | 47.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed ECSTATIC | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 859 | 46.1%396 W · 463 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed ECSTATIC | 42c | 35.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 737 | 58.2%429 W · 308 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked ECSTATIC | 49c | 27.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b3…5411backed Liquid | 60c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…824cbacked Liquid | 61c | 16.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.