World Politics · resolved market
Will Liberal Alliance win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14b62e8c67735fb5c34a8190fdf202f14367339edda5d1103e92a7c8e2e8990a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,206 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 52c | 1,428$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…a115backed No | 50c | 1,188$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b81…e8a6backed Yes | 50c | 1,180$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…335fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,178$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…99f4backed No | 50c | 1,176$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f8…111cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,171$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…f513backed Yes | 50c | 1,171$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…e16bbacked No | 50c | 1,166$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…d6c5backed No | 50c | 1,164$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…10f8backed No | 50c | 1,164$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…316cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,158$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f14…3845backed No | 50c | 1,007$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…42debacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…e50ebacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…1832backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d8…cbd0backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1699…b4c0backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…5ab1backed No | 50c | 999$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…a379backed No | 50c | 999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…dadbbacked Yes | 50c | 999$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…44eebacked Yes | 52c | 961$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 51c | 490$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 45c | 444$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 56c | 361$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 55c | 245.9$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 45c | 204.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 56c | 177.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 46c | 170.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 144.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 44c | 121$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +131.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 74.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 46.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 48c | 42.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…5df5backed No | 60c | 31.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 37c | 29.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 53c | 27.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked Yes | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 52c | 25.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…8fc1backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 45c | 22.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 50c | 20.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…7cb0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liberal Alliance win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?this page
- Will Liberal Alliance win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Liberal Alliance win <15 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.