World Politics · resolved market
Will Liberal Alliance win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520da60cfabfa2e344c166443c5aecc5ba3c079e663caa0d3d9e2456e2bf4c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,073 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed Yes | 33c | 2,891$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 67c | 1,202$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 67c | 925$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 67c | 764$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 67c | 612$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 35c | 562.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 28c | 536.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.12 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 3c | 494.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 33c | 409$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd2…d015backed Yes | 33c | 338.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac77…c15ebacked No | 65c | 306.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 33c | 281.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 33c | 224$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 33c | 203$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 33c | 185$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 67c | 144$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed No | 67c | 134$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 67c | 131$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 36c | 126.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 90.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 76.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 22c | 74.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…7cb0backed Yes | 33c | 70.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 34c | 68.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 66.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 67c | 60.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 54.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 48.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499a…d367backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 66c | 38.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…2f2fbacked Yes | 30c | 38.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06cc…ded1backed No | 69c | 38.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 35.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 70c | 29.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 66c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 66c | 15.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liberal Alliance win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?this page
- Will Liberal Alliance win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Yes won
- Will Liberal Alliance win <15 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.