NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15172779d89c186588cf65ee64d736233b4ff5255efcbffde1b28231e79eda8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 12,773$7,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,588.69 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…8e70backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 10,000$5,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,686.18 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -12.4wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Suns | 45c | 6,971$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,834.05 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 43c | 5,701$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,259.35 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Suns | 41c | 2,886$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.85 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 40c | 2,065$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Suns | 42c | 1,785$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.3 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Suns | 43c | 1,362$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.54 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Suns | 41c | 1,202$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.23 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns | 40c | 1,120$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Suns | 40c | 1,031$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.01 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 954.1$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.93 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 806$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.18 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Suns | 47c | 728.29$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.99 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 719$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.07 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Suns | 47c | 584.36$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.71 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Suns | 50c | 434.81$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 45c | 434.6$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.03 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Suns | 45c | 394.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.45 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Suns | 49c | 361.72$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Suns | 41c | 268$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.12 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…16ecbacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…ecb7backed Trail Blazers | 69c | 219.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…fecabacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 197.77$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 42c | 197.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 183.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Trail Blazers | 35c | 144.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Suns | 44c | 129.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 128.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Suns | 51c | 121.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Suns | 63c | 119.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Suns | 67c | 118.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 101.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Suns | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Trail Blazers | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Suns | 46c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 88.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…9f4dbacked Trail Blazers | 60c | 88.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Suns | 48c | 78.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Suns | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Trail Blazers | 17c | 63.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Suns | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Trail Blazers | 71c | 55.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 51.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 50.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Suns | 41c | 46.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Suns | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Suns | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 232 | 49.6%115 W · 117 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d0eabacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…122ebacked Trail Blazers | 36c | 35.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Suns | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Trail Blazers | 59c | 31.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Suns | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Suns | 42c | 27.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…eae7backed Suns | 71c | 26.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 25.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Suns | 46c | 23.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…bed3backed Suns | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…7deebacked Trail Blazers | 59c | 23.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)this page
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Mark Williams: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Royce O'Neale: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. Trail BlazersSuns won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 222.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.