Serie A · resolved market
Will Napoli vs. Inter end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1591843fc86953df3721ee1dcca80efef17247769c427004116ccfa0b24d8de8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Yes | 32c | 6,663$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 68c | 4,642$3,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.46 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 69c | 2,520$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.35 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 1,955$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.18 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 1,588$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.59 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked No | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 29c | 1,408$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.45 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 31c | 1,171$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 75c | 704.58$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.71 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 704.52$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.48 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 30c | 666.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 31c | 567.55$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.29 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 70c | 477$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…8b6fbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…0751backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed No | 69c | 299.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…00d8backed Yes | 31c | 290$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 75c | 243$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 31c | 225.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 66c | 167.94$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 70c | 158$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 31c | 129.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…d2d8backed Yes | 34c | 111.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 29c | 101.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…08d7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde43…ec94backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa633…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…d418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ae…b7b7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x618a…6196backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…f860backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…dd5dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…0426backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…2032backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa520…e1a2backed Yes | 33c | 84.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…ad22backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…84a0backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…c664backed Yes | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…47adbacked Yes | 31c | 63.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 30c | 61.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 32c | 50.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 69c | 33.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 68c | 31.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…6728backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…b75bbacked No | 73c | 27.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 70c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napoli vs. Inter end in a draw?this page
- Will Inter win on 2025-10-25?No won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-10-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.