TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Mercury vs. Aces

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Acesof Mercury, Aces
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…4c40backed Aces60c30,755$18,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,302.16637.9%25 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Mercury40c30,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,999.912152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Mercury46c29,152$13,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,539.244438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb006…4eb8backed Aces59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe973…7338backed Mercury41c9,765$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,003.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Mercury39c8,844$3,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,443.541030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Aces49c7,076$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,576.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34f7…28bfbacked Aces50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Aces60c6,903$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,773.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98b1…d855backed Aces60c6,021$3,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Mercury40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Aces56c5,905$3,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.451,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Mercury41c4,384$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782.013246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Mercury57c4,343$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.761533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd16a…7691backed Aces61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Mercury39c3,569$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.032330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury41c3,550$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.9923931.8%76 W · 163 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdde1…6354backed Aces60c3,500$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf74e…fc81backed Mercury40c3,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8d…037abacked Aces62c3,496$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Aces58c3,490$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.397162%44 W · 27 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+35.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked Aces55c3,106$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Aces46c2,904$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.5431847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury57c2,833$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.9521440.7%87 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Aces59c2,500$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+95.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Mercury40c2,490$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.562030%6 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xace2…8fe6backed Mercury40c2,218$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.05933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Mercury42c1,826$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.964443.2%19 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Aces58c1,568$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.742646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Aces44c1,555$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.854100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+84.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Aces43c1,482$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.587929.1%23 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury40c1,452$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.8812463.7%79 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury40c1,313$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.27851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Aces59c1,300$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5331163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c2…4074backed Mercury41c1,296$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb9…ce7ebacked Mercury51c1,274$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.54520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Mercury41c1,263$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.981421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Aces59c1,200$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4924551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Aces58c1,078$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.351233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Aces60c1,056$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+76%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aces51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe99…f618backed Mercury3c901.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked Aces68c883.99$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Aces50c786.99$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf5d…38b5backed Aces65c774.74$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab7…d178backed Mercury63c758.45$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Aces59c754.97$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.549354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa161…86fdbacked Mercury40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked Mercury41c695.12$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa7…e577backed Aces60c666.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mercury50c656$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.4719142.4%81 W · 110 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5918…6bfcbacked Mercury39c635.54$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Mercury26c615.49$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16315246.7%71 W · 81 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Aces60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24012840.6%52 W · 76 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb790…8389backed Mercury39c560.31$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e8…6e04backed Mercury40c560$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Aces54c536.66$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b8…be4cbacked Aces61c527.42$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…e7a1backed Aces47c516.59$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Aces61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+78.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Aces58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2102646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Mercury41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Aces61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2800…2081backed Mercury27c490.67$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Aces62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.87771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Mercury66c481.97$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.151435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Aces49c453$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.137542.7%32 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Aces60c434.8$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.924358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Mercury42c419.42$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Aces60c416.67$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Mercury40c397$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.85042%21 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…e211backed Aces58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Aces62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.584100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Aces51c306.29$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.742142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Mercury39c306.17$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.97236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ec…18f4backed Mercury40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Mercury38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Mercury32c277.89$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.95624.8%3 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Aces60c270.1$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.041450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Mercury39c269.43$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.086640.9%27 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Mercury7c266$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Mercury40c251.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4911545.2%52 W · 63 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x605a…c6debacked Aces60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.53473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Aces60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+42.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x279b…04f5backed Mercury40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Aces61c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023431.6%74 W · 160 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027232.7%89 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Mercury38c243.55$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5560%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury39c238.56$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.929055.6%50 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Aces43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.564346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x673f…6ab0backed Aces77c219.74$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Mercury41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824052.5%21 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Aces55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe49c…773ebacked Aces59c200$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8714…4750backed Mercury52c192.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Aces54c185.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.56683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury41c180$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.813044.6%58 W · 72 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Mercury58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Aces59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.